GOP Deathwatch: Tracking the Kübler-Ross Model
By mw | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Bloomberg, Republicans
The hardest part of being a General Political Practitioner is telling the family the bad news. Dr. DWSUWF diagnosed a dangerous tumor in the Republican Party in the fall of 2006. He did not catch it as early as he would have liked, but it was still treatable. In this November 15, 2006 post, Dr. DWSUWF biopsied several right wing sites, with disquieting results. The cancer of the right wing vocal minority compromised the GOP’s immunity against stupidity and triggered tissue rejection of a rational and electable conservative candidate like Chuck Hagel. In January of 2007 Dr. DWSUWF prescribed an aggressive treatment plan injecting comments throughout the political blogopsphere. Unfortunately this meager treatment had no observable effect on the malignancy. The doctor did not give up. He offered the treatment again on January 10, 2007 and yet again on March 30, 2007. By June, Dr. DWSUWF was desperate to find a cure, even embracing alternative radical treatments like Ron Paul rEVOLution.
Alas, it was to no avail. The patient refused all treatment. It is time to face the truth. The GOP is terminal. The cancer of the vocal minority of the rabid right has paralyzed and enfeebled the GOP body and infected the GOP brain. The party is incapable of articulating a coherent reason for its own existence outside of opposing Hillary Clinton. All we can do is watch and understand the process as it unfolds.
In her seminal 1969 book On Death and Dying, Elisabeth Kubler-Ross enumerated the five stages of dying. The psychological process that begins when a patient first becomes aware of a terminal illness is also known as the Kübler-Ross model.
The Kübler-Ross five stages of dying as described in Wikipedia
- Denial: The initial stage: “It can’t be happening.”
- Anger: “Why me? It’s not fair.”
- Bargaining: “Just let me live to see my children graduate.”
- Depression: “I’m so sad, why bother with anything?”
- Acceptance: “It’s going to be OK.”
We can use these as milestones to track the progression of the disease through the Republican body politic. Understand that this is a large bloated patient, and the disease will progress at different rates in different parts of the body. Different stages and symptoms can and will present at the same time.
The first stage is always experienced by patients confronted with a terminal diagnosis. It is a universal human reaction. By now, virtually the entire Republican Party is either in or has passed through this stage. I exhibited some symptoms myself. Karl Rove was one of the earliest, and most prominent Republicans to publicly present the denial stage symptoms. Only days before 2006 mid-term election, Karl Rove was already denying the reality obvious to everyone else by claiming secret knowledge and predicting a Republican mid-term victory in this NPR interview with Robert Siegel :
“MR. ROVE: Yeah. Look, I’m looking at all these Robert and adding them up. And I add up to a Republican Senate and a Republican House. You may end up with a different math, but you’re entitled to your math. I’m entitled to “the” math.”
Interestingly, Karl Rove has remained in the Denial Stage to this day. Most recently displaying the symptoms in a Newsweek Opinion piece - Crackup? Not So Fast:
“Calm down. The GOP’s demise isn’t as imminent as some would have it.. The Reagan coalition has a natural desire to stick together. Fiscal, defense and values conservatives have more in common with each other than with any major element of the Democratic Party’s leadership.”
Sad. To think he was once heralded as a political genius. He has mentally blocked out the news that the Democratic party turnout is crushing Republican party turnout in every primary and every caucus in every state [This from the transcript of last Sunday's Meet the Press: so far in the primaries "Republicans have gotten 12.9 million votes, Democrats have gotten 19.2 million votes"]. He refuses to acknowledge that tens of thousands turn out to see either Clinton or Obama at routine campaign stops while, at best, tens of hundreds can be bothered to show up for John McCain. Nor can he face that money is pouring into the Democratic coffers and trickling into the Republicans. Karl’s extended denial stage is delusional on a scale that is breathtaking to behold.
Anger is the second stage a patient reaches when facing a terminal illness. Anger at God, anger towards doctors, nurses, and families, and in the case of the terminally ill GOP, anger at other Republicans and the presumptive nominee of the party:
Sean Hannity as reported by AJ Strata
“I tuned into Hannity see what had happened today and the guy just went off on what can only be described as a lick-spittle tirade! Apparently Rich Galen wrote a piece today and noted how conservatives tearing down McCain is basically doing the liberal media’s work for them… But something inside Hannity snapped over this and he was in the throws of insanity. He claimed those who question his actions are pompous, arrogant, hanger-ons who are simply trying to angle for jobs in the new administration and have sold their principles for money.”
Other examples include Laura Ingraham, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and the entire entire floor of the CPAC Convention.
Bargaining is a brief stage that the terminal patient may pass through after the crying, lamentations and rending of garments phase. The patient may attempt to open negotiations with God, with Satan, or even with the presumptive nominee himself to stave off the inevitable.
Ann Coulter provides an example:
“McCain uses the boilerplate language of all Republicans in saying he will appoint “strict constructionists.” This is supposed to end all discussion of the courts. But if he’s picking strict constructionists, he will have to appoint judges who will commit to overturning McCain-Feingold. That could be our litmus test: Will you hold President McCain’s signature legislation restricting speech unconstitutional?”
Other examples include Richard Viguerie and Alfred Regnery
Depression is the fourth stage, and can include mourning, deep melancholy, pessimism, listlessness, and in the case of the death of a political party, refusal to campaign or even vote. Only a few Republicans have reached this stage, but one notable example:
“I’m deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, who voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings, who opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, and who has little regard for freedom of speech, who organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language… I cannot, and I will not vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience. But what a sad and melancholy decision this is for me and many other conservatives.”
We can expect to see many more clinically depressed Republicans in the coming months.
The final stage. Some never reach it, fighting to the end, or simply wallowing in depression and self-pity. Acceptance in this context simply means to give up and accept that the death of the GOP is inevitable.
At the time of this writing, DWSUWF is the only Republican to pass through all five stages to accept the inevitable (with the possible exception of Andrew Sullivan and Peggy Noonan). Having worked diligently from the inside, lo these long six weeks, as a stalwart fighting to save the GOP, I have reconciled myself that there is nothing more to do. I oppose euthanasia on principle, so all we can do is watch the end using the Kübler-Ross Model to track the final stages.
This is, of course, very bad news for the supporters of Divided Government such as me. We are now on board a hell-bound train rocketing down the rails toward single party Democratic Government, with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama controlling the levers of power for the expanded unitary executive designed by Dick Cheney, complemented by increased Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature and a real possibly of a 60 vote filibuster-proof plurality in the Senate. God help us. One can only hope that the Democrats will not have time to do as much damage in two years of single party control as it took the Republicans to do in six.
One last straw to grasp, is the possibility of a Hagel/Bloomberg presidential effort to replace the dying GOP (more in a future post). There is no historical precedent for a successful third party presidential run except in the role of spoiler. However, there is a precedent for a new opposition party successfully displacing an established major party that has disemboweled itself (Lincoln’s Republicans replacing the Whigs).
But for the current incarnation of the Republican Party, it is all over. The only remaining suspense is to see what Alien-like creature of hell will erupt through the GOP chest cavity as it convulses in its final death throes.
Excerpted from Divided We Stand United We Fall
This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 13th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Bloomberg, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
February 13th, 2008 at 2:11 am
I may be exaggerating for effect.
On the other hand, The GOP may really be in the process of being rendered politically irrelevant for a generation.
February 13th, 2008 at 5:55 am
The Republicans are ready to nominate John McCain, who is one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate. The Republicans will fail this time around, but not because they’re out there nominating some right wing nutball. They’ll lose because independents recognize that Bush has sucked as a president, and the pendulum needs to swing the other way for a few years. And they’ll lose because a lot of people want to get the hell out of Iraq.
February 13th, 2008 at 5:57 am
mw: I give it 8-12 years.
February 13th, 2008 at 7:20 am
It was inevitable that an organization with hatred, intolerance, and violence at it’s core would ultimately fail – they always do. It was a great piece of writing above, but the fat lady hasn’t sung. I do not trust anyone in power right now to “go quietly into the long goodnight” without a fight. This group wouldn’t surprise me by starting a war, planting a nuclear bomb, something big to help get them on their fear pedestal once again. Maybe even a political assassination – they are that sick you know.
February 13th, 2008 at 8:44 am
I remember these same pronouncements in 1994.
My question is why would anyone want a one party system in this country?
Do you so believe that the democrats have the answers for everything that we would not end up in far, far, far worse shape then we are in now.
It never ceases to amaze me at the win at all costs mentality of those one the left or the right.
February 13th, 2008 at 9:12 am
People keep saying that this election will go democrat because people want out of Iraq. Can someone tell me which candidate that is? Obama wants out of Iraq, and in to Pakistan. Clinton is gonna stay the course, after all: “the Surge is working”. So which democrat is going to bring the troops home?
February 13th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Tom,
I agree, this presidential election is more a reaction to Bush administration failure than anything else. The pendulum analogy is the right analogy. 8-12 years? For another president maybe, but I think the Senate is another story.
The GOP should have a structural advantage in 2010 (as the Dems have this year) and as the pendulum swings back,they will make gains in the Senate in 2010. If they do not dig themselves too deep a hole this year, they might even regain the Senate.
I also agree that this election is still all bout Iraq, regardless of how many talking heads say it is the economy. You hear a lot about the the “three legs of the stool” for the GOP – fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, strong defense. It seems like Republicans prefer to argue whether the social or fiscal leg is to blame for the failure of the traditional and necessary “fusionist alliance” in the GOP. It is neither – in fact, it is the third leg, the rabid militarism, that will cost the GOP this election and possibly their future.
Americans believe in what GWB campaigned on (humble foreign policy, no nation building, strong military only for defense) and not what he came to represent – involving us in a preemptive war we did not need to fight, continuing to attempt to entangle us in a permanent occupation of Iraq, ham handed saber rattling over diplomacy and the willingness to sacrifice American freedoms, constitutional protections and privacy on the altar of a permanent war.
This is going to be a landslide.
February 13th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Republican victory – Not going to happen unfortunately – the Republican party will lose – big! And they will keep on losing until they jettison those parts of their coalition that don’t make sense – the religious right, the right wing extremists who say they are conservatives but don’t bat an eye when the debt doubles in 6 years, or don’t stand up and scream when a war is started for no real reason – they and theur people are making $billion$. They need to identify those pieces of their party that claim to love America but truly hate Americans – and get rid of them. A party that stands for small government and fiscal responsibility but gleefully oversees the largest growth in debt and government size increase in history. It is painful to watch a party so screwed up that the only thing they can hang onto are lies, generalizations, fruitless military engagements – and pretend that they are the only one’s who can keep us safe – when the truth is they have really really really hurt this country in many ways. When that party can stand in front of this country and tell the truth about what they need to do to make things better –and I am not for one second claiming the Dem’s have ownership of honesty – they don’t — then things can get better. But as long as people treat the Dem’s and Rep’s tit for tat BS as true politics it will continue. Get rid of them all, get rid of every incumbant’s, get rid of the money influence, get rid of the huge defense budgets, get rid of the huge debts – there are alot of really serious problems that business as usual just won’t allow to work – it can’t be swept under the rug any more -40 plus years is too much damage.
February 13th, 2008 at 10:00 am
TomFromMD Says: “one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate” — where does this come from? McCain pegs the hawk end of the scale on all things military, is consistently among the most if not the most anti-abortion Senator, and if anything is more of a “values” panderer than any of the other candidates save Huckabee. Hell, the man wants to bring back the draft, and regrets that it’s not currently “politically feasible.”
McCain seems moderate because his small number of deviations from his party have been vastly played up to create this “maverick” image, and because the press love him. But that’s just the image of a moderate, not the substance.
It’s true that his campaign so far has given him room to tack to the center, and he might yet take that opportunity (indeed he will have to to stand a chance). But there’s been no evidence of that so far.
February 13th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Abrisaham,
I certainly do not, as should be clear from my other posts here or even the paragraph on divided government in this post. I think granting single party control of the presidency and both houses of legislature is always a big big mistake. It was a disaster under six years of Republican party single party control, and I am sure it will be bad again under the single party Democratic control we will see for at least the next two years.
Single party control of the federal government undermines the checks and balances designed into the system. As a result bad legislation is passed, bad decisions are made and allowed to stand, oversight is inadequate, and corruption is made easier.
My preference would have been to vote fro an anti-war fiscal conservative Republican to maintain divided government. For that reason I supported Hagel and then Paul. Now my choice is either to vote for a continuation of this military policy, or vote for single party government. Worse and Worser. It’s a conundrum.
If Hagel/Bloomberg get into this race – that might be my only choice.
February 13th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Very nicely written — obituary?
One point of contention, though–to say the Dems will win a landslide ignores the truism that you should never underestimate the Democrats will to botch an election.
I am still wondering how George W Bush was elected in the first place. Failed businessman, mediocre politician, hopelessly inarticulate, son of a 1-term president and brother to a criminal (Neil =S&L fiasco, and frankly Jeb still needs to explain how a 4.6 million construction loan resulted in a $500,000 building), anti-environment (though he lied about that), pro-Oil, fiscally unconservative, draft dodger–my God, who voted for this guy?
February 13th, 2008 at 11:15 am
True. In this analysis, I did indeed completely ignore the Dems propensity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Its a wild card.
February 13th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
gerryf – nicely put. Fortunately, he’s not running again. The Dems have a chance to put a new face in the game that shows a lot of promise, against the oldest guy to ever run for the office – and show the whole world what we really stand for. Or they can put a conservative against another conservative so that those 2 can have a non-discussion about a war costing us Trillions that should have never been fought, and the two “friends” can amicably resolve how to have non-political impartial discussions and avoid telling the American people how seriously bad things are. More smoke less mirrors this time – but without big changes things won’t ever get better.
February 13th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
I for one am a liberal but I want this nation to have a 2 party system and I want both parties to be strong so that this nation continues to evolve slowly as it always has done.
I want us to be right…..not speedy. I want us to look for truth, not make up the truth and then make up laws to fit our perceived ideas of truth.
I want this nation to care for the rich and the poor. The weak and the strong because we are all after all. Americans first and foremost.
So at the end of the day I think that a two or three party system is our safest bet. It is our strongest chance at success and yes it might be slow but then this country has always moved ahead slowly, cautiously making sure that we try not to leave anyone behind.
That is precisely why we can have heated debates about politics or religion or gay right and then go have a beer and play softball together.
Ain’t America Great!!
PS
I think the GOP needed this. They need to restructure, reorganize and reevaluate their direction and they will come out stronger and perhaps a bit more moderate. A bit. But you can rest assured that 1/2 of this country believes in what they are doing as a party. As someone said earlier. This is not a vote for the democrats as much as it is going to be a vote against GWB and the WAR. Period. I do believe that.
February 13th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
OMG,
The liberals r finally coming out of the closet! I used to think that the neocons were in control simply b/c they cared so damn much! They always had all the facts n inside scoop…now I see they were just chanting the Rush mantra n drinkin too much koolaid. Even tho i made fun, I do agree wth the previous sentiment. Compromise has a lot to do wth politics doesn’t it?. It’s been so long…
The “With me or against me” presidency is almost over. Seems that much of the world is taking the latter choice. Btw, I liked Chuck Hagel too. Thanks for bringin him up again. I almost forgot how they laughed him off the stage as well for his too moderate viewpoints. Who’s laughin now, my friends?
February 13th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
It could have been worse. They could have expunged McCain from the party, the way the Democrats bailed on Joe Lieberman, forcing him to abandon the party.
Also, The republican party is supposedly in demise because they are nominating a more moderate cadidate for president, and the extreme right wing is dissapointed.
Well, the Democrats seem to have given in to the extreme left, moonbat wing of their party – the Code Pinkers, the Cindy Sheehans and Michael Moore types. What is worse?
February 13th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Well, it is not like they didn’t try, and are still trying.
mmmm… not quite. The Republican party is in demise because the vast majority in this country is rejecting the idea of continuing to fight a war that should not have been waged, and told the price for that forever war is sacrificing privacy, habeas corpus, surrendering the notion that the rule of law applies to the president and vice president, piling a trillion dollars of debt on our children and requires the torturing of detainees in our name. That would be the reason.
It is just icing on the cake that the vocal minority has decided to take itself hostage by pointing a gun at it’s own head and threatening to pull the trigger if the don’t get the candidate they want – Then learning that nobody cares if they pull the trigger.
February 13th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
MW,
I do agree that the war will become a much bigger issue in Nov. Problem is it depends how the war is going. The majority (64%) might be against the war but surprisingly a majority also thinks we can win (56%) and that things are getting better (52%).
February 13th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
I’m not convinced this election will be such a disaster for the GOP, but that’s only because the Dems have shown themselves to be just as weak and dysfunctional, in their own way, as the Republicans. Misery loves company.
Some commentators raised the possibility of a third-party entry in the presidential race. This might actually help the GOP, by giving erstwhile Republican voters fed up with the party and/or dissatisfied with McCain a more palatable “protest vote” option than crossing over to the Dem candidate. (Somehow I doubt many Dems would cross over or vote third even if they are unhappy with their nominee, which is why I suspect this would favor the GOP.)
February 13th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Bob,
Yes the surge has improved the situation, and people recognize that. But that does not mean that Americans are willing to leave most of our active troops in Iraq indefinitely to maintain this level of improvement.
There was a saying in the Ike election referring to Korea: “The ones that got us in will not be the ones to get us out” The Dems got us into Korea and the Reps (under Ike) got us out. In Vietnam the Dems got us in and the Reps (under Nixon) got us out. In Iraq, the Reps got us in and I think that voters intuitively believe it will have to be the Dems to get us out.
Josh,
Maybe. I’m not sure who it helps or hurts. I only care if it has a chance to win. I’ve been thinking about the possibility, and will have more to say on it next week.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Maybe I am just too cynical, but I don’t think the “death of the GOP” is an accident, but a deliberate attempt on the part of the extreme right to prevent their loss of status in the party.
McCain has moved to the forefront despite these people’s wishes because the majority of the party is tired of of being led around by a powerful minority block. The extreme minority is going to “prove” to the majority that they cannot retain power without them and will sacrifice any meaningful shot at the presidency and hopes for the senate to do it.
The majority was thinking that after years of being led around like a blind man, that they would snap the leash and get their dog to do what it wanted for a change; the minority said not so fast.
The result is not an obituary for the GOP, but a game of chicken to see who will blink first.
My prediction, despite the proclivity to mess up even the easiest election, the GOP will lose because the extreme right will stay home this year. They won’t blink and the moderate majority in the GOP will cave after the election and fall meekly in line to regain power.
The extreme right is counting on the more moderate majority to not split off, and as embarrassed as many of these people are by the last 8 years, they will not have the will to say no when the extremists demand even more power.
Say what you will about extremists, but they are passionate and patient–a deadly combination.
February 17th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
GOP Deathwatch: Tracking the Kübler-Ross Model…
Linked by Dr. Pat Santy, who does not concur with the diagnosis, but agrees with the prognosis.
Cross-posted at Donklephant.
Divided and Balanced.? Now that is fair….
March 10th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
[...] almost feel sorry for her. I mean, what the hell is she going to say? Complete denial may be the only rational reaction when staring into the abyss. Interestingly, the GOP talking points have departed too far from reality for even Michelle Malkin [...]