Obama Wins Wisconsin Big

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Hillary, Wisconsin

Looks like he’ll end up finishing the night with a lead of about 13%, which is bad news for Hillary. Her and her team threw some pretty significant attacks at him that dominated the last couple news cycles and it looked like it actually helped him. In fact, if I remember correctly from exit polls I heard tonight, voters said overwhelmingly that her attacks were more unfair. How about that?

Here are some demographics via exit polls, via Drudge:

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households

So it looks like he cut into all of her power alleys except for white women. No word on Hispanics yet, but I think their numbers in this state were statistically insignificant. I’ll find out soon I’m sure.

Here’s how Ed Morrissey sees it…

Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can’t win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown.

She needed to either have this be a close one or win it. She did neither.

We’ll see how this all shakes out tomorrow.

UPDATE:
Okay, we’re actually looking at landslide proportions here.

With 99% reporting, he has won 58% to 41%, which represents a 17 point spread. It’s my opinion that double digits means a big win and after you cross the 15 point threshold, you’re into landslide territory.

Just to give you some perspective on this, McCain has his nomination locked up and he won 55% to Huckabee’s 37% tonight. That’s an 18 point spread. So Obama beat Hillary by virtually the same amount.

Also, and most importantly, he seems to have gained an 11 point delegate advantage on her tonight. This is the real reason Wisconsin was so important. Now she’s going to have to win Ohio and Texas by even bigger margins, and Texas looks to be shaping up to possibly even be a win for Obama.

Another thing to note, he has two weeks to campaign in the March 2nd states now and as we’ve seen in nearly every single place this guy has visited, he makes up ground when he gets on the ground and shakes hands.


This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Hillary, Wisconsin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “Obama Wins Wisconsin Big”

  1. mw Says:

    “She needed to either have this be a close one or win it.”

    No.

    Before Wisconsin she needed to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

    After Wisconsin she needs to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

    I’ll agree with Morrissey that winning Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania got harder after this showing in Wisconsin, but it was in no way a “need to win” state.

  2. Justin Gardner Says:

    “No” back at ya.

    Wisconsin was a key state. Now she’ll lose one of those 3 states (most likely Texas) because she didn’t stop Obama here.

    Mark my words on this mw.

  3. TheMiddle Says:

    I can’t believe this is happening – I started working for Barack three months ago with a hope and a prayer. In two weeks with either a win in Texas or close races in both Texas and Ohio we can actually win. Amazing.

    I mean, there was NO WAY we could beat Hillary – it was a near technical impossibility, at least in my own mind. And now… Wow. I feel like some no name boxer and I’ve got Muhammad Ali against the ropes and ready to go, all I need to do is land one more big punch and its over.

  4. mw Says:

    Hmm. Seems like we should have some sort of a wager here.

    I will admit I am less confident than yesterday. But I’ll stick to my guns.

    I have always thought of Wisconsin as the premier breeding ground for world class serial killers. Must be something in the water.

  5. TheMiddle Says:

    How long until Clinton starts using THAT as her excuse for why Wisconsin didn’t/doesn’t matter.

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