Texas, Ohio Polls Tighten For Obama And Hillary
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, Ohio, Polls, TexasRemember, if Hillary doesn’t win both Texas and Ohio, it’s over. And many politicos say she has to take the states by big margins if she wants to catch up with Obama in the delegate race. The math bears that out, but if she does win, I’m betting she keeps going because she’ll say she stopped his momentum. And that’s a credible argument, but again, it’s all about the delegates…
First, the tale of two Texas polls.
In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party’s nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton.But taking into account the poll’s sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.
Clinton had a statistically insignificant 50 percent to 48 percent edge over Obama in last Monday’s CNN/ORC poll in Texas.
Last week, Clinton led Obama by three percentage points. The week before, she had a sixteen-point advantage.
Now, onto the Ohio polls, which show a wide variance, but all trending toward gains for Obama.
First, Qunnipac shows Hillary up by 11, but that’s down from a 21 point lead 11 days ago…
“Sen. Clinton’s lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “A week is an awful long time in politics to be playing defense, but one thing going in her favor is that she is viewed more favorably than is he by Ohio likely Democratic primary voters.“Sen. Obama, to no one’s surprise given his momentum nationally, has made inroads, especially among some of Sen. Clinton’s softer supporters,” said Brown. “If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers – women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale.”
“For instance, while she held leads of four points and 27 points among likely primary voters below and over age 45 respectively earlier this month, now she trails by 52 – 42 percent among the younger group and her margin has shrunk to 55 – 35 percent among older voters,” said Brown.
Public Policy Polling (via TPM) has her up only 4 points:
“Hillary Clinton is in big trouble,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in the polling memo. “As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20 point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with another eight day before the voting.”From the internals: Hillary leads 55%-42% among women, while Obama leads 51%-45% with men. Hillary leads 56%-40% among core Democrats, while Obama is ahead 64%-33% with independents and 80%-13% among crossover Republicans.
And last, the University of Cincinnati (again, via TPM) has Hill up by 8:
Hillary has 47% to Obama’s 39%, with a very noticeable gender gap — Obama leads among men 45%-42%, while Hillary wins big with women at 52%-34%.
Again, she can win both Texas and Ohio, but if they’re not by large margins, expect the Democratic establishment to start pressuring her to bow out.
This entry was posted on Monday, February 25th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, Ohio, Polls, Texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
February 25th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Hillary is tough and that is what I want in a commander-in-chief. I cannot believe the media thinks Hillary should quit because she is 100 delegates behind. Did they call for Barack to quit when he was 100 delegates behind? And why was that? I am a Texan living in London and what do my peers call Barack – a “schoolboy” (that is NOT a British compliment). They don’t believe he can stand up to other world leaders which means America will sink even further in world influence. I am praying that my fellow Texans pull through for the most prepared and qualified candidate – Hillary!
February 25th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
[...] Ohio provides more hospital grounds for Mrs. Clinton, at least for now, but as the Donklephant points out, while Clinton still enjoys statistically significant leads, those too are fading fast. One poll shows Obama making up ten points in the space of 11 days while two other polls give Hillary… [...]
February 25th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Sen. Obama is ahead in Texas and Ohio (Vermont & Rhode Island too) and here’s why the polls aren’t showing Obama’s lead: The pollsters contact those with landlines. Most younger people don’t have a landline, we use cell phones. Hence, the pollster miss a huge percentage of Sen. Obama’s supporters.
February 26th, 2008 at 6:10 am
I the big thing that amazes me about this race is, not only the Clinton camp, but also the media’s fixation on the lack of accomplishments of Obama. While I too am at a loss to list the things he’s done I am also at a loss to list the accomplishments of Clinton. What I see from her is a lot of failed efforts such as healthcare, whitewater, travelgate and the Vince Foster death.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Obama’s turnouts have exceeded the polls. He should end up winning both Ohio and Texas.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Based on Jesse Monsen’s insightful observation, that “Most younger people don’t have a landline, we use cell phones. Hence, the pollster miss a huge percentage of Sen. Obama’s supporters.”[sic], I like to send a message to all pollsters “Go back to your STATISTICS-101 and update your polling method.” Keep up with time, please.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:28 am
The “they don’t account for cell phones” argument has been pushed since 2004, and it hasn’t proved to be correct yet.
In fact, the polling places DO take cell phones into account and have weighting mechanisms to ensure their numbers are correct.
At the end of the day, polls are usually only good for one thing: trend watching. And the polls are trending in Obama’s favor. Things could change in a week, but if they do it’ll have much less to do with the pollsters lack of being able to call cell phone and more to do with what’s happening in this latest debate.
February 28th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Did you watch the MSNBC dem debate? There was a texting poll, you know texting from cell phones? They asked who won the debate, it was 70% Obama 30% Clinton. Yeah it didn’t ask who was going to win the primary but if you were a supporter of clinton you weren’t going to text in for Obama. I think I can assume what the demographic was for those who texted there vote in for that poll.
February 28th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Obama hasn’t been tested by the media yet, and since he is an unknown, I think it will be sad if he gets the nomination without the public knowing him first. I hope Hillary can battle it out long enough to get a taste of this man’s true colors.
February 28th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Obama has been running for just about a year, and he wasn’t always at the top of the ticket. He has been tested by Hillary, McCain, Republicans and the media. This whole the world loves Obama, there for he must not be good enough, they’re all naive is ridiculous.
The truth is, he’s been taking the heat from the Clinton campaign, and honestly I prefer how he’s been handling it. Not a bunch of back handed tactics in return. The thing is for you Clintonians, is that your candidate comes off as mean and shrill when she is campaigning, save the two times she cried before primaries. I loved Bill as president, but Hillary doesn’t have his charm. She may become a fine president, it’s her as a person that I take issue with. Any sensible woman would have divorced her husband, but she stuck with him for political purposes, another fault to her character.