Obama Gains Big In Pennsylvania
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, Pennsylvania, PollsAnother firewall state for Hillary seems to be fading away.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton’s lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. [...] This compares to a 52 - 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14.
So what happened?
This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.
Obviously Obama will have to count on more than just the youth vote in Pennsylvania, but I have a feeling if he gets a tie or a win in either Texas or Ohio, Pennsylvania will swing his way.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 27th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
February 27th, 2008 at 10:23 am
So you are saying that Clinton is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and tied in Texas. Just checking.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Yep, but Obama is closing the gap quickly in all of the states, and some polls show him leading in Texas. The trends are definitely against her.
February 27th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Don’t you just love how nothing you ever say on a blog ever goes away?
February 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
When Obama gets his win in TX, the race is over. Even if she keeps OH in her column, it’ll be too close to change the tide. There’s already a steady trickle of superdelegates to Obama. On March 5, it’ll be a much stronger movement. She’s already getting ‘it’s over’ articles in the press — that will also become much stronger. Her funding will dry up. I’d bet a lot of money that she’s out by March 8.
Intrade is betting that way, too. The contract for the PA primary has Obama at 80. Given that the polls are still in her favor, that only makes sense if the market is betting that HRC is out of the race before then.
February 27th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Maggie,
Good insight on the Penn primary. Just noticed that Clinton’s Intrade contract for the Dem nomination is below 20. It has not been this low since the night before the New Hampshire Primary, when it went from below 30 to almost 70 in one day. That contract would be a good contrarian bet if I could figure out how to put US money into that thing. When Clinton surprises in Texas like she did in NH - it’ll be a tidy little profit.
February 27th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
MW, ya know, we can forgoe all the legal crap and just place a wager right here online. Lets say, if Hillary wins by more than 15% in Texas and Ohio (the only way she can actually have a legitimate shot at winning the nomination) I’ll never post here again. And If Obama wins, you dont post here anymore. Or we could put good ole US currency on it. I’ll put 100 on it Barack takes Texas if you’ll put 100 on it that she can win by 15% in each state and actually stay competitive in this race. How about it?
February 27th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Nice Try Middle - but…
First of all I like posting here - so I ain’t going anywhere. Those stakes are too high for me. Besides, I don’t care if you post here or not. But cash - or a public post extolling your virtues, your genius, your studliness, your betting prowess - I’ll do that.
Now on to the terms - The 15% has to come out of the bet, I don’t accept your premise that she needs to win by 15% for it to be a victory.
It is appropriate to paraphrase an infamous Clintonian parsing: It depends on the what the definition of “win” is.
I am using the popular vote as the sole determinant of victory. That is the definition of the Intrade contract. On Intrade I can get 4 to 1 odds for the Texas Primary (not caucus). It would be kind of silly for me to make a wager with you for considerably lesser terms than I can get on the open market - don’t you agree? Lets call the odds negotiable. I’m listening. Make me an offer.
My rationale why a simple majority the popular vote in TX and OH is enough. Not delegates. Not caucus results. Just the popular votes in Texas and Ohio. As long as she wins the popular vote The Story stays intact. The Story is all that matters to her campaign now. The Story is that Clinton wins all the big states except Illinois. That story is all that is needed to provide political cover for the superdelegates to vote for Clinton. A 200 elected delegate lead for Obama is the equivalent of a dead even tie, as long as The Story is intact.
If the story is broken, and she loses the popular vote in Texas. Game over.
February 27th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Middle, Apparently my comment reply is in moderation. Gotta run some errands. Will look for your revised offer later tonight/
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:58 pm
[...] so. This is what I have been saying in posts here and in other comments. With a Clinton win in Ohio and Texas, the narrative - “The Story” - becomes more [...]
March 15th, 2008 at 12:41 am
Obama is one of the most skilful liars you will ever see. Check this site out: http://www.mahalo.com/Larry_Sinclair