Semi-Live Coverage Of Democratic Primaries Tonight
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, DemocratsI’ll be doing updates throughout the night as the results come in, so stop back by and share your thoughts.
My predictions at this point?
- Hillary wins Ohio by 7, but essentially ties for delegates because of the way they’re proportioned.
- Barack wins Texas by 1, but nets more delegates because of bigger wins in the caucuses.
- Hillary wins Rhode Island by 10. She’ll make big hay about this tomorrow.
- Barack wins Vermont by at least 15, maybe more.
Conclusion? Tomorrow is going to be a good day for Hillary, but that’ll change when every single news outlet starts asking the obvious question: how can you possibly win?
What are your predictions?
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March 4th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
My gut tells me that late deciders are going to break towards Hillary in the wake of weak but effective anti-Obama vibes. But that might be because I’ve spent the last couple days on the computer with cable news running in the background.
If I had to bet, I’d bet Hillary wins the pop vote in Texas by a hair.
Everything else will probably come out as polls have suggested…big Obama win in hippie Vermont, comfortable Clinton win in machine Rhode Island, 5ish point Clinton win on Ohio, where she has apparently never trailed.
FWIW, I think Clinton has a fair case for staying in if she wins the Texas pop vote. Then she has enough mo to catch up a little bit by attrition and then mount a plausible convention fight.
She’ll probably stay in even if she splits Texas and Ohio, but the unfavorable mathematics will quickly become apparent because she won’t have enough mo to pick up the majority of Ws prior to Pennsylvania.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Clinton wins Ohio by 5
Clinton wins Texas popular vote by 2 (but loses delegates – thereby supporting the argument that pledged delegates are undemocratic and it is perfectly legitimate for them to be over-ridden by superdelegates)
VT and RI – who cares?
March 4th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
It would be so amazing if she had to spin Rhode Island- the smallest state in the nation- as the only state that counts. Still, not holding my breath.