McCain’s Next Move
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in 2008 Election, McCainNow that John McCain has secured the Republican nomination and gotten the President Bush photo op out of the way, what does he do now? I mean, besides trying not to appear at Bush’s side again until sometime after November.
My suggestion: lay low for awhile. The impulse will be for him to keep his name on the front page, making speeches and campaign stops and generating news stories. But the best kinds of news stories for McCain right now are the ones critiquing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Let the two Democrats drive the media cycle with their backbiting and muckraking. Observe which attacks work against which candidate. And, most importantly of all, stay out of it so as to appear above it.
Even us McCain supporters know we’re backing an 8:1 horse here. No matter how much real change McCain can offer, unless he changes the R by his name, a lot of voters are going to head the other direction. That’s the political reality. His chances at victory depend on two main factors. 1) He’s got to stay true to his independent instincts and not become the McBush so many on the left are trying to pretend he is. 2) He’s got to hope Obama and Clinton damage each other enough that the electorate ends up trusting neither or at least ends up exhausted by them both.
McCain has plenty of time for that first factor. He needs to see if that second factor is going to play out now. So, Johnny, sit back, maybe propose something bipartisan in the Senate, do some low-key fundraisers, work on your speaking style, rest up. You’ll need all your wits and a little luck to win this one.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 5th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Mr. Carl,
As much as I respect your opinion, even tho yur more realistic than many on the right, you still ignore the many flaws of your candidate, John McCain. It’s not simply that he’s got an R by his name that has him in trouble, he’s done that for himself on so many levels!
The conservatives HATE him. Many have sworn openly they’d vote for Hillary if it came to that - not very believable though. The Christian Right can’t back him for so many reasons as u well know, the border states can’t stand his teaming up wth Sen. Kennedy on immigration reform. It goes on and on. Voting against the tax bill, right to choose, Keating 5. etc, etc.
And now lets talk about why the independents aren’t that crazy about him. War in Iraq, 100 year occupation- I know, that’s media hype- but he said it!!! Yea, it’s gonna be tough. That’s why I wanted a moderate like Chuck Hagel, but he was laughed out before he got started. Shame!
March 6th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“The Christian Right can’t back him for so many reasons as u well know, the border states can’t stand his teaming up wth Sen. Kennedy on immigration reform. It goes on and on. Voting against the tax bill, right to choose, Keating 5. etc, etc.”
He’s pro-life, that will keep the social conservatives happy.
You misanalyze border states. There are a lot of voters in border states that are in favor of comprehensive immigration reform (as opposed to enforcement only). President Bush, who proposed a guest worker program, is from Texas, a border state. McCain is from Arizona, also a border state. The strongest anti-immigration candidate was Tancredo. He is from Colorado which is definitely not a border state. Also neither of the Dem. candidates are for “enforcement only”, thus neutralizing the issue.
Most voters don’t care about Keating because it didn’t personally affect them. Most fiscal conservative voters don’t care about his vote against the Bush tax cut because McCain’s focus is on balancing the budget and reducing spending. The ones that do care about past tax votes can find no solace in either Dem. candidate.
So Summary:
Social conservatives - Pro-live - McCain
KKK conservatives - Anti-immigrant - won’t vote
Fiscal conservatives - Anti-government waste - McCain
Defense conservatives - Iraq Surge - McCain
March 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
So Summary:
Social conservatives - Pro-live - McCain
KKK conservatives - Anti-immigrant - won’t vote
Fiscal conservatives - Anti-government waste - McCain
Defense conservatives - Iraq Surge - McCain
So Summary:
Social conservatives - easily brainwashed, they will vote McCain
KKK conservatives - most republicans, they will vote for Satan if it keeps a black man out of the White house.
Fiscal conservatives - there aren’t any in the republican party. Anyone who claims to be yet votes republican is a liar.
Defense conservatives - war monger cowards scared of the big bad A-rabs will vote McCain
End result-McCain wins because most Americans are incredibly stupid and racist.
March 6th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Nelson,
I agree with your point about pro war consrvatives but I was talking about losing some independnt votes b/c of this stance. I was wrong about his pro-life stance, i thought he was more nuetral there, leaving it up to the states and avoiding the issue- which is ok by me, but not for the Repub base.
You’re right about the KKK Consrvs (LOL) but are you saying that these fools are the only Repubs that are anti-immigrant? How bout the fierce backlash from all the top Repubs in Congress when his bill was offered in the Senate, and the equally rebellious reaction to Pres. Bush’s proposals on the issue? This is such an upside-down issue; top Dems siding with Bush & McCain and visa-versa for Repub leaders backing the likes of -who would believe- Lou Dobbs of CNN!!!
So have things changed so much since the campaigns began, or are u privy to some sort of change in attitudes at the borders?
March 7th, 2008 at 7:48 am
So have things changed so much since the campaigns began, or are u privy to some sort of change in attitudes at the borders?
I’m from 2 border states (originally from Texas, living in Arizona). Yes there is a lot of hot headedness about the immigration issue. But after all the yelling settles down and people start talking and using common sense, most border staters agree the people coming here should be documented and legal, but they’re also for issuing more documents (increased legal immigration, decreased illegal immigration) and someway to account for the externalities - maybe some kind of deposit or insurance policy for working here, in case something goes wrong (health, auto accident, theft, etc…) and some form of taxation to pay for their childrens’ education and more roads.
There are also friends, relatives, businessmen and just regular people who think they deserve a realistic chance that see it as more just and common sense to bring illegal aliens out of the underground economy and give them legal rights (and responsibilities). Threating to deport them and not letting them work legally encourages them to stay underground and gives their employers the ability to take unjust advantage of their situation.
Obviously some groups don’t want any increase in legal immigration and a deportation of - or at least “make life hard for” - all that are here illegally, but those particular groups have no one to vote for this round.