The New, New, New Metric For Hillary Victory
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, HistoryYou ready for this one? Because it’s really good. Okay, here we go…
Superdelegates shouldn’t make up their mind because of pledged delegates. They should make up their mind based on how many electoral college votes the states each candidate has won.
That coming from the man who wants to be Hillary’s VP, Evan Bayh.
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, who backs Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton for president, proposed another gauge Sunday by which superdelegates might judge whether to support Mrs. Clinton or Senator Barack Obama.He suggested that they consider the electoral votes of the states that each of them has won.
“So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that’s how we choose the president of the United States,†Mr. Bayh said on CNN’s “Late Edition.â€
In a primary, of course, electoral votes are not relevant, but the Clinton campaign is trying to use them as an unofficial measure of strength.
So far, Mrs. Clinton has won states with a total of 219 Electoral College votes, not counting Florida and Michigan, while Mr. Obama has won states with a total of 202 electoral votes.
Let’s just set aside the fact that Obama has won vastly more states than Hillary and instead focus on the completely intellectually dishonest “big states matter, small ones don’t” strategy.
Fact: Bill Clinton won the first contest because Ross Perot changed the electoral map and he won the second contest because he was able to maintain essentially the same electoral vote total.
Bill Clinton – 1992:
Bill Clinton – 1996:
Long story short, Clinton got lucky the first time and folks were happy with him the second time. The Dems didn’t all of a sudden tap into the psyche of big states. They were simply able to capture them because of where the country was. So the idea that these big states are somehow easier for Dems to win is simply false.
Even JFK and Carter had completely different electoral maps as the ones we claim are the Dem strongholds today.
JFK – 1960:
Carter – 1976:
Let’s remember Gore in 2000, who tried to stick to supposed Dem strongholds. But Florida has never been reliably Democratic. Carter caught it in ‘76 and Clinton in ‘96, but the Dems haven’t been able to win it since.
I guess my question is would the media tolerate this type of goalpost moving from anybody but Hillary? And why is the Dem establishment accepting it when they’ve NEVER seen the big state strategy succeed? It just doesn’t make any sense.
Moving on…
This entry was posted on Monday, March 24th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Hillary, History. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
March 24th, 2008 at 11:39 am
If super delegates are supposed to vote with their state’s pledged delegates what happened to Kennedy, Kerry and Richardson. Didn’t Cllinton win Massachusetts and New Mexico? Kennedy and Kerry endorsed Obama BEFORE Massachusetts held it’s primary and delegates were pledged.
So, I ask you. Should “super delegates make up their mind because of pledge delegates”.
March 24th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
I’ve commented to others in the past several years that for Dems to win they must broaden their horizons beyond the big cities and stop ignoring heartland areas. It’s been proven now you can’t win national elections by winning NY/Phil/LA/Miami etc and pray the rest of the votes follow. Strategizing on electoral votes rather than winning the overall votes and letting electorals take care of themselves is a losing game.
March 24th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
This map confirms that somehow the Republicans and Democrats switched ‘official’ colors – apparently sometime back in the 1970s. Until now I didn’t know if it was just in my imagination that the Republicans used to be blue and the Democrats red. Now I can just imagine a group of liberal-leaning reporters in a bar back in 1979 high-fiving each other and laughing about their success in re-branding the Republicans in the same color as the Nazis and the Communists.
March 24th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Chuck,
Both you and I know that if Hillary wins it because of superdelegates, she will lose the general election from the fallout over that move. That is, unless Obama shows us some reason he is wholly unfit to be the nominee. And that point the Obama folks may consider being okay with a superdelegate swing to Hillary, but Obama has proved to be a far better candidate than Hillary and one that could potentially change the electoral map, which is the only way Dems have been able to win the Presidency in the past.
But just to be transparent about all this, I don’t agree with the whole idea of superdelegates in the first place. I mean they were created because the Dem establishment didn’t like the nominess the voters were choosing. But this system, when used for its sole purpose, gave us Walter Mondale. Since then it really hasn’t been used at all because it wasn’t needed.
So if the only time it has been used the way it should have been used resulted in a landslide of epic proportions and every other time they weren’t needed, then why in the hell do they still exist?
It’s time to move the Dems into the 21st century and away from rules enacted in the late 70s due to the power hungriness of party insiders.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
“Both you and I know that if Hillary wins it because of superdelegates, she will lose the general election from the fallout over that move.” – jg
There is no evidence of that, even thought it is oft repeated by Obama supporters. I have heard the same thing from angry Clinton supporters, particulary women, who say they would prefer to vote for McCain because of the abuse they have taken from Obama supporters. In any case, if Obama takes the VP, there there is no question that the problem goes away.
“why is the Dem establishment accepting it when they’ve NEVER seen the big state strategy succeed?” – jg
And, how many times has the “ignore the big states just get the small states” strategy succeeded? The superdelegates will go for whoever they think will win in November. That is exactly why they exist, to make that call if neither candidate is able to show a clear ability to win the will of the voters over the other. Which is exactly the situation we will have in June. If Obama could have closed the deal, they would be moot. He didn’t and they are not.
I agree with you regarding future nominations, but that is neither here nor there.
March 24th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
If the American people aren’t convinced that the Billary crowd is attempting to wreck Obama’s chances for 2004 – this latest move has got to convince them. Billary can’t win – even with the weasles and quibblers and “clinton” math this post underlines, it’s still out of reach.
The Clinton’s had this nomination hands down – it was locked up – but they still managed to screw it up through their arrogance and down right stupidity. Screwing up such a sure thing should enrage every Hillary supporter enough that they just drop her because of gross incompetence and mismanagement. If they aren’t willing to do that – then have the decency to atleast tell her campaign how much her staying in is hurting the party’s chances of victory in November.
Hillary know’s she can’t win, Bill knows this, but they just don’t care…..so when you think of voting for someone who has absolutely no chance of victory and every intention of trashing the Den nominee ask yourself if you’re sure she’s the best candidate – and if she’s so good why has she lost so much, and why is she so far behind? This country does not require the services of pro war conservatives, so they all need to just go away………..and stay away.
March 24th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Obama is our Savior and Messiah! Obama and Reverend Wright are RIGHT, God D*** america. Your “typical white person” is, as Barak says, a racist who will vote for clinton in these so called “elections”. Now is the time to rally around Barak and Michelle and make them proud by appointing him President now. Democracy is really an euro centric tradition, let us recognize the value inheirent in the African Tribal system and institute Obama as our permanent leader! He can immediately apologize to our Muslim brothers for an arrogant, slave mentality thinking america. The chickens have come home to roost evil america. News Flash america – Obama is correct – all you “typical white people” are racists!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Ah – Obamamania. So good to hear from the ragged right wing echo chamber. In case you have not figured it out by now – this kind of content-free diatribe does nothing except make the small and shrinking percentage of the electorate that already think like you feel good about yourselves. But hey, if this sort of thing makes you feel good, by all means just keep playing with yourselves.
Just know that it convinces exactly no one, except for those that might be more inclined to vote for Obama to ensure they are voting against what you represent.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
TerenceC
You bet Clinton is trying to wreck Obama’s chances in 2008. Isn’t he trying to wreck her chances. Don’t canidates try to win elections over opponents?
50% of Democrats disagree with you and think Hilary would make the best canidate.
One theme I’ve noticed among Obama followers is that they fear the primaries running their course. They want to quit while they’re ahead. If the delegate count was reversed would they be screaming for Obama to quit. Hell, no. So it’s in the interests of their canidate that they want Clinton to quit. Not that they give a damn about the Democratic Party. What hypocrisy.
They say you can’t judge a book by it’s cover. That’s true. A lot of Obama followers judged him before they opened the book and looked at the pages. Turns out it was a work or fiction.
A question for Obamaites. What do you think of reparations?
March 24th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Mr Cheadle
“If the delegate count was reversed would they be screaming for Obama to quit. Hell, no. So it’s in the interests of their canidate that they want Clinton to quit. Not that they give a damn about the Democratic Party. What hypocrisy.”
If the delegate count were reversed virtually everyone would be asking for Obama to step down – Clinton, the Media, both right and left wing news, everyone – and you know what……..he’d do it. It is because who her husband is, and what the Clinton’s are in the Dem party that she is still considered active in this race – no other reason. The facts are right before us. She can’t win on any matrices….she lost, and it’s her fault.
The longer the loser stays in and launches attacks at her primary opponent the greater the chances the opposition going unchallenged will win. I didn’t write these Primary/caucus rules….I didn’t agree to these rules…..I didn’t even know about most of these rules – but the people involved all did, and they all agreed. Sour grapes and revisionist history won’t cut it – she needs to go quickly and quietly. Game over…she and her seven dwarves team took it all for granted……..it’s endemic of America actually – arrogance, hubris, the big fall, then all the dust up as her team of cartoon characters point fingers and try and shift blame figuring out what the hell just happened.
There must be a good line from Casablanca that would wrap this up properly for Hillary — how about this exchange
Hill: You understand how I feel. How long was it we had Bill?
Bill: (Bill on the verge of tears) I didn’t count the days.
Hill: Well, I did. Every one of ‘em. Mostly I remember the last one. The wild finish. A lady standing on a station platform in the rain with a comical look in her face because her insides have been kicked out. (remembering super Tuesday and having “it” handed to her in Wisconsin)
Hillary hurts everyone the longer she stays…..and she’s couldn’t care less if the Democratic party suffers because of it. President McCain and Vice President Clinton – what’s next?
March 24th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
I have no sour grapes about the rules. It is Obama supporters that are always whining about superdelegates deciding this, which are – in fact – the rules of the game that everyone agreed to. The problem with Obama supporters is that there are some rules that they like, even if it disenfranchises voters, and other rules they don’t like, because that is how Clinton is going to win.
It is simply a false statement that Clinton can’t win. Playing exactly by the rules of the Dem nomination process, If she continues to fight hard, I think it is likely, even probable that she will win. She owes it to her supporters (of which every poll shows there are as many as Obama supporters), to fight as hard as she can for the nomination.
Obama has failed to deliver a knockout blow even outspending her 4-1 and having all the momentum going into TX and OH. I think he very well may have already peaked, and is on a slow downward slide now. She does better than him in every debate, and there are two more coming up.
The only way to reply to this abject nonsense that Clinton should stop trying to win the nomination, because “the Democratc party suffers” is to just flip the names and play it back:
So TerrenceC:
Barack hurts everyone the longer he stays…..and he couldn’t care less if the Democratic party suffers because of it.
Get over it. It is still a very real contest. May the best woman win.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Justin,
Both you and I know that if Obama wins it’s because of the super delegates.
March 24th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Obamamania is a right-wing troll. Ignore it.
Chuck, that’s correct, but the superdelegates have to decide if they want to overturn the will of the people. If they do, it’ll be sticky.
March 24th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
It’s going to be sticky either way. If things stay as close as they are nobody is going to drop out. So hang on Obama. You’re in for a ride. Seems like Obama fears this, Clinton says “bring it on”. His stand is that it will disenfranchise voters. So be it. It doesn’t seem to bother him that Florida and Michigan voters are disenfranchised. Oh, that’s right, we’re just following the rules. Well, the rules say the super delegates are the tie breaker. When the first ballot is over and there is no winner than it’s center stage for them.
When it come to flight or fight, I’ll take the fighter.
March 24th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Hey, all fair points on the superdelegates. We’re strenuously agreeing. :-)
As far as “fighters” go, I’ve been extremely impressed with both candidates’ tenacity in this race. But just because Hillary is behind doesn’t mean she’s a better fighter. Obama has quickly and efficiently responded to attack after attack in this campaign and has never backed down. So let’s drop the hacky “fighter” meme, shall we?
March 24th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Ok. You drop the “will of the people” canard as it relates to pledged delegates, and I’ll drop the “fighter” meme. Deal?
March 25th, 2008 at 4:17 am
Hillary….the war hero, the stateswoman, the legislator? OK that was unfair……she has been losing, will continue to lose overall, and doesn’t have the structure to win now or in Nov. Stick a fork in her………it’s over.
March 25th, 2008 at 7:20 am
More like Hillary the spurned wife. Is it just me, or is this the first time anyone’s dared bring up Bill’s Lewinsky debacle up in reference to the present political climate – asking if he’s the “biggest pig?”: http://www.wowowow.com/poll/who-biggest-pig
March 25th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Heh. You know, the most reliable metric I have found to be an indicator of an impending Clinton win, is when I start seeing Obama supporters using the phrase “stick a fork in her”. The last two times this happened was immediately before New Hampshire and immediately before Ohio/Texas.
Really. I noted the phenomena in this post
If I see this two or three more times, I’ll know it is a lock for Clinton.
March 25th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Actually, I was talking to Chuck. So I’m not dropping anything. Sorry. :-)
However, I will place a wager that Obama gets the nomination. What are you in for?
March 26th, 2008 at 5:07 am
Well WM, Clinton lost in delegates in NH and TX, and OH is currently involved in investigations of voter fraud – so your little “fork thing” indicates something.
March 26th, 2008 at 10:09 am
TC – I see goal posts moving.
BTW – Obama winning more delegates than Clinton in states that she won the Primary (like TX) just proves what a travesty the caucus process is and how undemocratic the pledged delegates are. The will of the people was thwarted by Obama and his supporters in Tx (and MI and FL and…). I can only hope that the superdelegates understand that they need to restore some integrity to this process, side with the will of the people and vote to overturn the pledged delegates. The will of the people demand it. Otherwise the will of the people may become disgusted with the Democrats and turn against them in November. Fortunately we have a real fighter with Clinton, who will keep fighting hard for the will of the people. She is the one hope for the will of the people to be recognized in the democratic party process, and with such an important principle at stake (the will of the people), the right thing for her to do is keep fighting and scrambling to the bitter end to defend the will of the people. I am really surprised to find Obama and his supporters to be so undemocratic and opposed to the will of the people. Its shocking really.
JG – Current odds on Intrade are 5-1. Nothing is going to happen to change the dynamic of this race until PA, and I hate to take advantage of you with those odds. Maybe Clinton will get a bit of a bump when she mops the floor with him in the debate again – that might improve the odds.
I think a wager should be blog related in some way. Maybe a directed post where the winner directs the loser to write a post on a specific subject and also specifies which side to take. For example I might ask you to write a post defending the use of superdelegates in the Democratic Party nomination process. At current odds you would have to risk five directed posts to my one. What do you think?
March 26th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
MW
Not long ago Obama supporters were wringing their hands saying if Clinton didn’t drop out of the race the sky would fall. Now twenty-two percent of Democrats want him to drop out and eighty-five percent think it’s going to be deceided by super delegates, and the sky is sill there. I think we’re starting to see some buyer’s remorse with Obama or his supporters are just getting used to the idea that she’s going to take the nomination from him. Who knows, in a couple of weeks maybe we can count on their support for Clinton.
March 26th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
It’s over – get used to it. She lost but just hasn’t had time to sing with her dodging bullets, swords, knights and their pikes, and of course sarcasm and what not. As one of her supporters you should be royally pissed she and her seven dwarves screwed up such a sure thing. The goal posts haven’t moved – maybe you’re just seeing them clearly finally. She’ll win PA, lose NC, and trade victories back and forth until June – netting nothing and damaging the process for the Dem’s. Despite her ridiclous insistence, it’s still over – and she still loses. Short of Obama being caught with “a live boy or a dead woman” – she’s done – now get that fork ready, maybe you can use it to eat that crow JG’s getting ready to serve up for you.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Chuck C,
I hear you. They are getting pretty strident. Almost like they are getting worried about something.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
TC
Does it count if he’s caught with a goat? Because I’ve heard rumors…..
March 27th, 2008 at 9:30 am
What type of goat?
March 27th, 2008 at 11:41 am
TC
A Republican goat.