Why Muqtada al-Sadr Won’t Back Down
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Elections, Iraq, Military
The gun battles between soldiers and militiamen, who are all Shia Muslims, show that Iraq’s majority Shia community – which replaced Saddam Hussein’s Sunni regime – is splitting apart for the first time.Mr Sadr’s followers believe the government is trying to eliminate them before elections in southern Iraq later this year, which they are expected to win.
Emphasis mine there, and if this is true then get ready for continued bloodshed. Iraqi PM Maliki may think he can fight his way through this, but if we’re talking about a struggle for political power, this is the start of something much bigger.
Also, maybe this is why the U.S. is taking a back seat in this fight. Because if we’re involved on the ground, there’s no way they’ll be political reconciliation. However, we are providing air support, so that seems ill-advised if what we’re seeing is the start of a new civil war.
And to that point…
The supporters of Mr Sadr, who form the largest political movement in Iraq, blame the Americans for giving the go-ahead for Mr Maliki’s offensive against them and supporting it with helicopters and bomber aircraft. US troops have sealed off Sadr City, the close-packed slum in the capital with a population that is the main bastion of the Sadrists, while the Mehdi Army has taken over its streets, establishing checkpoints, each manned by about 20 heavily armed men. It is unlikely that the militiamen in Basra will surrender as demanded by the government. Sadiq al-Rikabi, an adviser to Mr Maliki, said those who kept their weapons would be arrested. “Any gunman who does not do that within three days will be an outlaw.”
We’ll see how this shakes out. The signs do not look good.
This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 and is filed under Elections, Iraq, Military. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
March 27th, 2008 at 3:30 am
Seems like the Iraqi gov forces are being beaten by the Mahdi forces in Basra so the only way out is a negotiation where Malaki may have to give up something to regain the peace
March 27th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Anyone else think it interesting that this all started immediately after Dick Cheney’s visit? To paraphrase from the Bourne series (I don’t remember which one.) “Dick doesn’t do random.†Also – He doesn’t do e-mails, unsecured phone calls, memo’s, nothing traceable. And he does not do meaningless PR trips to Iraq, which is all we have seen reported.
I am guessing this trip was about a face to face meeting with Nouri al-Maliki to deliver a simple message: “Green Light. Just wanted to drop by Nouri, and let you to know that if, by chance, for any reason, you feel compelled to take out your legitimately elected political opposition, who’s support is the only reason you were able to form a government and become prime minister – well – we are here for you, my friend. We got your back.â€
Just one more blunder to pile on the mountain of Iraq blunders spearheaded by Cheney. You’d think just the laws of statistics would mandate that he’d get something right on Iraq at some point in the last six years.