How Bad Is It For Hillary?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Pledged Delegates, Super Delegates!!!

The New York Times has a delegate scorecard thingamajig and I’m going to play out a few scenarios here.

First, let’s say Hillary and Obama split the remaining pledged delegates. What % of the supers would she need?

Think 73% is possible? If so, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying…

Okay, so let’s say Hill actually has momentum and starts beating Obama by 10% in every contest from here on out.

So she would still need to beat him nearly 2 to 1 in super pickups, and post Pennsylvania he has 21 to her 11. Hardly encouraging.

Okay, last scenario. What % of the pledged delegates would she have to get to merely trade superdelegate endorsements with Barack?

That’s right folks…she would have to beat Obama by 30% in every primary from here on out.

So if you ever wonder why people are calling for her to drop out of the race, remember this post.


This entry was posted on Monday, May 5th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Pledged Delegates, Super Delegates!!!. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “How Bad Is It For Hillary?”

  1. Rob in Denver Says:

    The link to the NYT delegate widget is malformed.

  2. Justin Gardner Says:

    Fixed. Thanks for that.

  3. kranky kritter Says:

    That’s about the right ballpark, and the way I’ve been approaching it for some time. If HC and BO roughly split the remaining delegates, then Clinton will need to carry somewhere between 5 out of every 8 and 2 out of every 3 superdelegates. That’s pretty uphill.

    Carrying 55% is the sort of threshold for reasonability that I’ve based my reasoning on. If you win by 10%, 55-45, you’re getting one person out of 20 to swing away from 50-50, giving 11-9 instead of 10-10. To carry 2/3 of the voters, that means you are getting one person out of THREE to switch away from the 50-50 count.

    Now I don’t dismiss the possibility, as these superdelegates are undoubtedly eager to broker the power they’ve been granted, and they are after all politicians. But 2 out of 3 is a very high bar when you’re talking politics and voting.

    Obama is running out the clock. If the upcoming results are as expected, and Obama wins the more delegate-rich NC while Hillary carries the less-delegate rich IN, then Obama is all that much closer to running out that clock.

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