The Road To 270
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, McCain, Republicans, Technology
So now it’s all about electoral college…finally.
The key questions:
- Which states do the candidates comfortably have in their corner?
- Which ones are battlegrounds?
- Which can they take from the other side?
Chuck Todd provides some insight into where the two candidates stand…
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)
As Todd points out, when you add up Base and Lean for both candidates, you come to exactly 200 for each. But do note that Obama’s Base is 37 larger than McCain’s. Sure, McCain will probably get a lot of those Leaners, but it’s very unlikely that McCain will get any of Obama’s Leaners.
So as it stands now, the map bodes well for Obama to capture 270 because of the Toss-ups. None of them seem unwinnable if he’s savvy enough to choose a solid, moderate VP and renews his case for national unity.
If you want to play around with scenarios, I suggest visiting 270ToWin.com. Their interactive electoral map couldn’t be any easier to use.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Thursday, June 5th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, McCain, Republicans, Technology. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:06 am
The VPs for the first time since Johnson may actually matter in getting states. If McCain gets more of a traditional conservative look for some of those lean states to turn base (MS, AR, IN, LA, MS).
But this is why I laughed at all the Obama landslide talk, it’s just not possible with the entrenched partisanship and current electoral map. This election may end up being Clinton/Dole but it’s no Reagan/Mondale.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Why not go way farther? Go ahead and give all those “leans” to their respective preferred candidate. Then let’s look at the iffiest “toss-ups.” I’d bet money McCain carries FL and VA, and I also doubt the “C) goes blue” case. I’d also bet money Obama carries WA, OR, and PA, while doubting the “MI goes red” hypothesis.
So quite possibly Ohio will pick the next President, or whoever gets 3 or 4 from from CO, MI, OH. NM, and WI. Unless something happens to push the trends strongly one way or the other across many states. That something could be an event (a domestic terrorist attack, a coup in Iraq, an economic collapse) or it could be a gathering mo for one guy or the other, like a fearful rejection of the risk of choosing the inexperienced, big-eared liberal, or a fed-up rejection of the status quo tired old addled hawkish bush extension.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:46 am
I agree that the VPs matter more than in any recent election, but I disagree with the “moderate” descriptor. I want to see the candidates who pick VPs that actually bring something valuable–thinking, experience, a balancing skillset, whatever–to the ticket rather than someone who is moderate.
June 5th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I hate to talk about someone else’s blog in the comments, but I read both of these sites regularly. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ this site is the best i think for judging who is going to win, personal opinion mccain wins the electoral vote but obama wins by millions in the popular vote, chaos ensues