“Obama has stated if elected he will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq, with one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.” – gerryf

What we have learned, is that what Obama campaign aides were saying in background is e a much more reliable indicator of Obama’s real policy positions than what he says. Case in point, the NAFTA kerfuffle when a campaign aid told Canadian representatives to not worry about Obama’s hard line NAFTA statements in Ohio. That of course turned out to be 100% accurate, as Obama’s recent backpedal on NAFTA has shown.

For an understanding of Obama’s real Iraq withdrawal policy, pay no attention to what he says. Pay attention to what Obama advisor Samantha Powers told a UK interviewer last March:

“He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator,” she said at one point in the interview.

Power downplayed Obama’s commitment to quick withdrawal from Iraq on Hard Talk, a program that often exceeds any of the U.S. talk shows in the rigor of its grillings. She was challenged on Obama’s Iraq plan, as it appears on his website, which says that Obama “will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.”

“What he’s actually said, after meeting with the generals and meeting with intelligence professionals, is that you – at best case scenario – will be able to withdraw one to two combat brigades each month. That’s what they’re telling him. He will revisit it when he becomes president,” Power says.

The host, Stephen Sackur, challenged her:“So what the American public thinks is a commitment to get combat forces out in 16 months isn’t a commitment isn’t it?”

“You can’t make a commitment in March 2008 about what circumstances will be like in January of 2009,” she said. “He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator. He will rely upon a plan – an operational plan – that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground to whom he doesn’t have daily access now, as a result of not being the president. So to think – it would be the height of ideology to sort of say, ‘Well, I said it, therefore I’m going to impose it on whatever reality greets me.’”

“It’s a best-case scenario,” she said again.”

The practical difference in the rate of our military withdrawal from Iraq between a President McCain or Obama are likely not that significant. What they say in the campaign to placate their base will be wildly at odds, but what actually transpires will be virtually identical. It is even possible that McCain will be able to effect a quicker withdrawal than Obama as president.

The fact that his advisers are floating the idea of keeping Gates is another indicator that the policy will not shift as quickly as he is leading his supporters to believe.

Obama has stated if elected he will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq, with one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.

Kind of sounds like a phased withdrawl to me….