Why?

Two words: Bob Barr.

Republican strategists are privately conceding that the GOP could lose Georgia’s 15 presidential electors for the first time since 1992 because of Bob Barr’s ballot position as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate.

The most recent Georgia survey by the polling firm Insider Advantage, conducted July 2, shows 46 percent for Sen. John McCain, 44 percent for Sen. Barack Obama and 4 percent for Barr. George W. Bush, who carried all 11 states of the old Confederacy in both 2000 and 2004, had 58 percent of Georgia’s vote in the last election.

But can Barr realistically keep that level of support up? Actually, I think he can because we’re talking about a very small % of conservatives who simply won’t vote for McCain because he’s too aligned with Bush when it comes to fiscal and foreign policy matters. There’s a healthy number of conservatives who are really angry with the current Republican status quo, and McCain isn’t doing enough to convince them that anything will change.

So, do I think Obama has a shot at the state? No. But it’ll be close enough that McCain will have to spend money, and that has to drive the Republicans nuts.