Gallup/USA Today: McCain Leads By 4 Nationally
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansHowever, that’s only among a narrower sample. Among registered voters, Obama still retains a lead.
Likely Voters
McCain – 49%
Obama – 45%
Registered Voters
Obama – 47%
McCain – 44%
Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that “registered voters are much more important at the moment,” because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.
He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama’s trip and the “laudatory” media coverage of it. “At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans,” he says. Also, he says that McCain’s sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.
The odd thing about this? The daily Gallup poll that was done during the exact same time has Obama up by 8 among registered voters.
My advice…go with the daily polls.
This entry was posted on Monday, July 28th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 28th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
This poll is worthless, and dare I say, another example of the media’s bias towards a horse race.
As the Huff Post reports, according to this Gallup, 16 percent all all respondents who preferred Obama were deemed “unlikely” to vote, while only 2 percent of McCain voters were dropped. Looked at another way, the preference of those polled but not counted was 61-7 for Obama.
The more polls I see using old sampling models from years past, not giving any consideration to the overwhelming enthusiasm advantage for Obama, the more I think we are looking at a coming landslide. The McCain supporters and his advisors seems to think that he’s keeping things close, and probably relying on the Bradley effect to win a squeaker against all odds, but I think that is a serious miscalculation.