Obama’s Veep Picks Narrowed To 4?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, VeepThe title of Marc Ambinder’s post today is “Sebelius, Kaine, Bayh, Biden” and I can believe it. These are four of the names that have been mentioned consistently, although I haven’t seen Kaine acting the surrogate for Obama very much. And for that matter, neither has Bayh. But maybe that’s by design?
Sebelius and Kaine are both governing choices, not campaign choices. They’re not going to match Obama’s enthusiasm levels; they’re not going to do all that well at the VP debates; they’re not even going to solve political problems (even Kaine). But they are solid; they are centrist-in-style; they are Washington outsiders; they know how to balance budgets and deal with Republicans. As an historical analogy, think Clinton’s choice of Gore.Choosing Biden or Bayh would put in the White House strong and knowledgeable legislators who would be expected to do heavy lifting with allies and adversaries. both would do well at the debates; Biden is flashy and might upstage Obama, but he’d be the best sheer campaigner and his selection would bring a jolt of enthusiasm to the Democratic ticket (as if it needed more). The downside here is the same as the upside: the focus will be on the ticket and not on Obama, per se. Bayh and Biden would call attention to Obama’s manifest lack of engagement with American foreign policy. And Biden, in particular, would face a prolonged period of press recapitulation. (And could Obama trust him to keep his mouth shut?)
Personally, I’m not very big on Kaine. I’ve seen this guy talk, and I just don’t think he’s ready for the national stage right now…if ever.
The other three?
Well, Sebelius could use a little bit more polish, but she has been playing the surrogate role for Obama since February and she has handled that role very effectively, while continuing to push the message of bringing a new kind of politics to Washington.
Bayh is the new Al Gore. Safe, boring and uninspiring. But apparently Bayh and Obama get along extremely well, and going with Bayh could do a lot to mend the fences with Hillary supporters in the middle northeast. If fact, Bayh could swing Indiana, and that state hasn’t gone blue since 1996.
As for the talk about Biden upstaging Obama…is that really the worst thing in the world? Everybody knows he’s prone to a couple gaffes here and there, so they’re much more likely to be forgiving if it does happen than if somebody unknown like Sebelius or Kaine gaffes. And can you think of a better person to have in the debates?
In any event, my advice would be to go with either Biden or Sebelius…and currently I’d lean towards Biden because of the national security cred he’d bring to the campaign.
What would you suggest?
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July 29th, 2008 at 10:22 am
[...] at Donklephant, Justin Gardner speculates that Obama’s best choice must just be someone we heard from 20 years ago: In any event, my advice would be to go with either Biden or Sebelius…and currently I’d lean [...]
July 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am
If I’m going to pick from that line-up, Sebelius. Kaine is my least favorite of the bunch of them. I like Biden a lot, and in the role of presiding over the Senate, he’d be absolutely ideal. But the VP does a lot more than that, and in almost every other area I’d prefer Sebelius or Bayh.
July 30th, 2008 at 5:42 am
Biden would be the safest choice. He’s not boring (well, if he keeps discussion short), he’s fairly moderate and he’s going to reassure the foreign-policy conscious that Democrats will be responsible on dealing with the rest of the world. Also, he’s not like John Edwards and will be a fierce attack dog when necessary. Roman Catholic and popular in the Chesapeake Bay area as well as Pennsylvania, he could definitely pull in some electoral votes for Obama.
The Republicans are going to make it sound like Obama can’t be trusted to keep America safe. That strategy won’t be as strong as in 2004, but it still works in many places. Biden will be able to cancel that factor out a bit.
July 30th, 2008 at 10:44 am
“If fact, Bayh could swing Indiana, and that state hasn’t gone blue since 1996.”
Check the color codes on your maps. Blue wasn’t standardized as a Democratic color until 2000. A lot of sources from before then have the colors reversed. The last time Indiana voted Democratic for president was 1964, and that was the only time since 1936. (That’s right, Indiana voted against Roosevelt twice.)