Colin Powell: The Most Important Endorsement This Campaign Season?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Independents, McCain
Heard the rumor today? That Colin Powell was going to the Democratic Convention and endorsing Barack Obama?
Well, considering the gossip came from conservative gadfly Bill Kristol, I immediately didn’t believe. And soon enough it was dispelled by Powell himself…
“I do not have time to waste on Bill Kristol’s musings,†Powell told ABC News. “I am not going to the convention. I have made this clear.â€
But this raises an interesting question: what could Powell’s endorsement do for Obama? And then, of course, there’s the flip side: what could it do for McCain?
Honestly, I think it could swing a significant number of Independents to either candidate’s favor. After all, Powell is one of the more popular moderate political figures we’ve encountered in the past couple decades, even with that infamous speech at the U.N. looming in the background.
My guess? I think he would have come out for McCain a lot earlier if he was going to support John, so I think he’s leaning heavily towards Obama because he shares a similar approach to foreign policy with the Illinois senator. That doesn’t mean he’ll explicitly endorse Obama, but Powell’s silence would be telling in a year like this…especially consider he has been a lifelong Republican…albeit a moderate one.
Now, if he does actually come out for Obama, I think it would be much closer to November. Hell, he may even wait until just a couple weeks before the election, just to make sure the Republicans don’t fish something really nasty up. After all, Powell has a reputation to think of too.
So what are your thoughts? Think he’s backing Obama, but doesn’t want to admit it? Or does he still have a soft spot for McCain? And would his endorsement mean that much?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 13th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Independents, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:37 am
IMO, endorsements really don’t matter. If Powell endorses Obama, people assume it’s because they’re both black. If he endorses McCain, people assume it’s because they’re both hawkish.
Everyone out there ask yourself this. How many times, when you were genuinely undecided about your vote, was the opinion of a politician or a celebrity a decisive factor in who you chose? The answer is never, right?
See here’s the thing. If there are even any folks out there who say someone’s endorsement made a difference, the truth is probably that they were already leaning strongly one way, and then they used the endorsement like permission.
I’ll cheerily concede that there may be exceptions, such as in the very rare case of a particularly iconic figure who perhaps transcended politics. If we currently had a very high-stature figure like say an MLK or a Mandela or the ghost of Ben Franklin, or if a very high profile partisan switched teams, that might have an effect.
But still, I say 99.999% nope.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I make this pledge: I will vote for whomever the ghost of Ben Franklin tells me to.
Colin Powell’s endorsement, however, won’t swing my vote. Now, if he somehow ended up as a runningmate to one of these guys, we can talk.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:52 am
An endorsement makes a difference only if someone who I was certain would support one candidate comes out for the other one. And then, only because I would probably go back and re-evaluate both candidates on the issue which the endorser said had motivated him to do the unexpected. And that applies whether the endorsement is for or against the candidate that I was leaning towards.
But as far as determining my vote? No way.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:54 am
I don’t think endorsements are about swinging voters to one candidate or another, especially since the Democratic primary is over and we don’t have to worry about Superdelegates.
I think endorsements are about fund raising and Washington alliances. The people on the inside track, and big donors are the ones that care the most about a candidates connections and supporters.
The earlier comments about endorsements not affecting votes are probably true, but I’d bet that a Powell endorsement would bring money to either campaign, and political goodwill for their administration since Powell is still pretty well respected in very high up circles.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
No one ever claims that an endorsement swings their vote, but doesn’t’ the sum total of numerous endorsements eventually add up in people’s minds? Of course they do, especially for a candidate for whom “experience†and “credibility†are an issue. Did Oprah’s endorsement give Obama the nomination? No, but the spotlight it gave him didn’t hurt. Colin Powel is viewed by many to be the guy who should have been the first black President, the guy who’s reputation was nearly destroyed by Rove & Co., and the guy who’s judgment (with one important exception) is beyond reproach. His weighty endorsement, along with all the rest, will have an impact, if only incremental. The question is will he endorse at all. I just can’t see him endorsing “four more years of Bushâ€, and some will consider an Obama endorsement “a black thingâ€, as you point out. My guess is he stays out of it altogether
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