Donklephant » Blog Archive » Gallup: Obama Leads By 1

Gallup: Obama Leads By 1

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans

Essentially all tied up, and the race has definitely grown tighter over the past week and a half.

Based on past history, Obama should expect a bounce from his vice presidential announcement this week and the convention next week. McCain, of course, should also expect a counter bounce thereafter, settings expectations for what may turn out to be some significant ups and downs in candidate support in the weeks to come.

I wonder what effect Biden, Bayh or Kaine would have on the race? And what if Obama’s pick was a complete wild card?

Personally, I think McCain is in a better position to pull a wild card pick, and that could definitely propel him into the lead…at least in the daily tracking.

More tomorrow…

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “Gallup: Obama Leads By 1”

Avinash_Tyagi Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Veeps rarely have enough strength to push people into the lead, the best he could haope to do is to suppress the fallout from Obama’s rally at the stadium and the news that he’s turning 72, no his best hope for a bump is at the convention, but considering what’s on tap at the convention, I think it won’t be a big bump for him, if any. He should probably just hope to dampen any bounce Obama will get.
Doug Mataconis Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Given how these polls have been going, doesn’t it seem that the most likely scenario is that whatever bounce Obama gets from the VP announcement and convention will be cancelled out by the bounce that McCain will get from his VP announcement and the GOP Convention ?
Avinash_Tyagi Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Possibly, however the energy at the Dem convention will probably be far greater than at the GOP convention, many in the GOP are staying away, plus Bush and Cheney will be there, I can see the dem bump being stronger
Doug Mataconis Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Perhaps.

Another factor that shouldn’t be discounted is that both conventions are taking place at the end of August/beginning of Sept with the Labor Day Holiday smack in the middle.

There’s a good chance that a large portion of the undecided voters that these guys will have to fight for in the fall won’t even be paying that much attention.

We’ve never had a situation where a race that was this close started with conventions that are barely a week apart, it’s hard to say what will happen.
Tully Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:44 am
Convention bounce is mostly about party base response. VP bounce is ALL about base reponse.

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