Obama Losing the Middle?
By Dyre42 | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, PollsLooks like he may be losing both conservative Democrats and some independents…
From Gallup polls:
…support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama’s support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.
Now I realize that polls are little more than snapshot of current public opinion but this particular one happens to mirror some of the talk I’m hearing amongst moderates both online and off. I can’t help but think that part of this loss of support from the middle has to do with the fact that many moderates were waiting for Obama to unveil innovative and thoughtful policies. However as the race has moved to the middle and the distinctions between Obama’s economic and energy policies (1) and McCain’s become less clear the more that works in McCain’s favor. He is after all a figure that the political center of this country knows pretty well. Obama? Not so much.
If Obama doesn’t start defining exactly what change is going to look like many independents and moderates may decide to back the devil they know over the devil they don’t.
Cross Posted from Dyre Portents
(1) clarified specific policies I was referring to.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.










August 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Obama has articulated his policy positions, but you won’t find the MSM covering that. They are too occupied with their fascination with all things Clinton and McCain’s attack ads.
But if you want to educate yourself, on his website there are very detailed policy positions which lay out Obama’s vision for the present and future. Comparing them to McCain’s policy papers is like a college thesis vs. 2nd grade book report. But I wouldn’t expect McCain’s media to tell you that, it would spoil your narrative.
August 27th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Anyone who doesn’t see differences between McCain’s policies and Obama’s policies just isn’t paying attention.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Wait a second, didn’t you hear that McCain is not a political centrist, and in fact is an arch-conservative no different than Bush? Not convinced? Well, maybe after Obama simply repeats this meme over and over again for the next 2 months it will magically come true.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Jimmy: Speaking of repeating something over and over…..what part of voting 90% of the time with President Bush over the past 3 years makes someone a “Maverick”?
Dyre: It’s hard to resist following the polls, but I’m hopeful that Obama is doing just what he did in the primary season: keeping his head down, with his eye on the prize (270) rather than on overall nation polls. This group has run a tight campaign ship so far, and I hope to see it continue.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
I think Obama has been clear about the hopeful changes he would like to make, but not so much on 1) how and 2) understanding the unintended consequences.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I think you’re on target Dyre. When it comes to many moderates and independents, I think the support for Obama has taken the form of “I’m listening, tell me not just what you’d like to do but how you think you’ll do it and pay for it.”
In other words, Obama has to make the sale to moderates and independents. So far he has been sticking to lots of shiny promises we’d all like to see fulfilled, if only we all had unlimited resources.
After all no one thinks peace is a lousy idea. And no one thinks making education a crucial priority is a bad idea. And no one thinks paying less for gas is a bad idea. And no one thinks national unity is a bad idea. And so on.
Fact is, moderates and independents want more than platitudes. They want the blanks filled in. Every day that the blanks don’t get filled in, more of these folk start kicking the tires on McCain. The more liberal folk among us just HATE to hear this, and tend to default to how McCain is every bit the anti-christ that George Bush is. That’s not gonna get it done.
August 27th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Agree with Dyre and KK. NJ-Ed missed the point. Its not that we don’t know his positions. Its that we do. And they look exactly like the run of the mill, tired old liberal Democratic policies that have been knocking around for the last 20 years. Obama’s policy positions could be the same policies as Clinton (either one) , or Kerry, or Dukakis, or Carter or Mondale. Where is the transcendent “change”? Where is the new politics? Because if all Obama is saying is – “don’t vote for them because they are Conservative Republicans, vote for me because I am a Liberal Democrat” – then I’ve got a news flash for you – That’s not change. That’s the same old politics.
August 27th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Lefty Lucy Says:
That’s a neat but insubstantial talking point. Presidents don’t vote in the U.S. Senate, so any attempt to compare McCain’s position in a given roll call with Bush’s has to start by fabricating the position Bush is assumed to take. The 90% figure you blithely quote comes from a CQ study, and by divorcing the statistic from the study, the study’s methodology is sidelined and the real limits of the study obscured. CQ’s study recorded only votes taken by McCain where the President had an explicitly-stated view; thus, the figure actually means that McCain has voted in line with Bush in 90% of the votes where he was present and where Bush personally had an explicitly-stated position.
The upshot is that there’s an obvious question you have to ask yourself before accepting those numbers: What percentage of the total votes cast that year does that represent? A somewhat extreme example will illustrate. The Senate held about 400 roll call votes last year. If Bush only expressed his view clearly enough to count in the CQ study on ten of them, and McCain voted with Bush on nine of those occasions, your 90% figure is accurate – but misleading, because it says nothing at all about McCain’s position on the other 97.75% of the votes the Senate took.
August 27th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
To Simon’s point:
Using the same data, this Independent verification of CQ vote studies show that McCain votes with his party 70-80% of the time while Obama has a solid 95% toe-the-party-line voting record. That makes McCain more independent, more of a maverick and less partisan than Obama.
Since these conclusions are from the same data set, here is your choice Lucy –
EITHER
The “McCain is Bush III†meme is mindless and meaningless sloganeering.
-OR-
Barack Obama is just another run-of-the-mill Democratic Party partisan hack.