Independents and Palin.
By mw | Related entries in Barack, Biden, Independents, McCain, Palin
Reading Justin’s post this morning, it seemed clear that independents were singularly unmoved by Sarah Palin’s speech last night. I was surprised by this result, but facts are facts. Four independent voters were interviewed by the Fair & Balanced™ Detroit Free Press and the results were unanimous and unambiguous - The Palin speech had no effect on them. In fact, they were negative. From those comments Justin was able to make an intuitive leap to a dramatic and sweeping conclusion. From the title of the post we learned that the speech was a strategic mistake, and in the body he explains to Governor Palin exactly where she went wrong:
“…my guess is that the large majority of independents want to see a lot more out of you than the speech you gave if you have ANY chance of winning their vote. In fact, you may have lost a good portion of them last night.”
Pretty definitive. That is why I was so surprised to learn that when RCP reported on an actual poll of Independents by SurveyUSA it tells a wildly divergent story from those Detroit Free Press Independent voters:
Palin Moves Independents:
24 hours ago, independent voters nationwide were split on whether Palin was an asset or a liability to McCain’s campaign. Today, by a 2:1 margin, independents say Palin is an asset. Overnight, the percentage calling the Alaska governor an asset to the campaign climbed 13 points; the percentage calling her a liability fell 17 points.
The numbers are similar among moderates, who 24 hours ago viewed Palin as a liability by an 11 point margin; today, Palin is seen as an asset by an 18 point margin.
In other poll results, it seems that more independents think Palin is an asset to McCain, than think Biden is an asset to Obama and more independent women voters think Palin is an asset to McCain, than think Biden is an asset to Obama.
Inexplicable. Obviously this poll is an outlier. I don’t know about you, but I’m going with those four Detroit Free Press Independents.
This entry was posted on Thursday, September 4th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Biden, Independents, McCain, Palin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
We shall see. :-)
September 4th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Well, I picked up my wife from the hairdressers today–and those are the kind of folks the Palin pick was intended to attract–and they were unimpressed.
So, that’s two unscientific polls to your one ;)
Seriously, I put the same amount of stock in all three of these sources. Trends matter, polls do not.
On a side note, anyone else notice McCain making the same dumb mistake he made a couple of months back? He’s standing in front of a BIG BLUE SCREEN.
That’s like saying, please please, all you You Tubers, get out your copies of Adobe Premiere and make me look stupid again !
Maybe old scenes from that old James Garner western series….
September 4th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
gerryf - I had the same thought. I wish I had the video skills.
But I am more more intrigued by your “pick up” survey. It reminded me of what may be my favorite couplet of all Rock n Roll lyrics, ZZ Top - I’m Bad, I’m Nationwide:
September 5th, 2008 at 4:27 am
Seeing someone as an asset is not the same as liking someone. Yes, people feel that she’s making the ticket more powerful, effective in rousing up the base, a talented politician etc., but that doesn’t have anything to do with them wanting to vote for her.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Wow…intrablog snarkery!
(I’m glad Justin is smiling about it!)
September 5th, 2008 at 7:26 am
The big screen behind McCain (and other speakers) was odd. Very American Idol. They should have just built a Greek temple and been done with it.
As to the Palin and Independents issue — my dog left the room halfway through the speech. That should probably be added to the data.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:26 am
“He’s standing in front of a BIG BLUE SCREEN.”
May he was fishing for some more “Make McCain Interesting” action from Stephen Colbert.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Oh no, the GOP as lost the crucial ASC canine demographic!
September 5th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I was actually surprised by the Detroit Free Press article because everything I’d heard from other media outlets was that independents liked her speech.
I think there must be a good number of right-wing or social conservative independents out there who like what Palin is saying. “Independent” isn’t always a synonym for “moderate.”
September 6th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
[...] “pervasive public mood for change” does not hurt him, and may even help his candidacy. Early indications are that his acceptance speech and the Palin pick went a long way to accomplishing exactly [...]
September 8th, 2008 at 12:32 am
It’s a great thing when guys like Mike and Alan contribute to balance Justin who’s about a year+ removed from being independent, as is evident in the meteoric evolution of his posts. After all, this is Donklephant and not MoveOn.