Mike Murphy On The Palin Strategy
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, McCain, Palin, RepublicansYou’ve heard him off the record, now hear him on it…
After last night’s smash, Republicans are in deep love. Nothing thrills ‘em like a good “us vs. them” speech. But I’d guess that most Democrats had the opposite reaction. In a year where the Democrat generic numbers are 10+ points better than the Republican, I don’t like the math of a strategy that just polarized the election along party base lines.Among the vital sliver of voters in the middle, I think Palin’s rock solid social conservatism will be a turn off. And while voters may value vision over experience, Palin’s inexperience is a weakness, denying McCain an argument that has been helping him against Obama.
And yes, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen, but both Murphy and I know that the numbers do not favor a strategy of exciting Republicans first and Indys second.
At the start of July, party ID was Dem 39.2%, Repub 31.6% and Indy 29.2%. And, contrary to popular belief, just because Repubs said they weren’t excited about McCain doesn’t mean they weren’t going to vote for them. In fact, well before the conventions, more Repubs claimed they were voting for McCain than Dems for Obama. Sure, Obama has more people to convince, but what McCain needed to do with the Palin pick was pull at least another 6% of Indys into his fold since the Dem/Repub party ID gap is so big.
And while Palin’s speech may have been some good red meat for the faithful, that’s exactly the stuff that independent and moderate voters want to stay far away from because they’ve had enough of it after the last 8 years.
One last note from Murphy on the folly of identity politics…
I know, I know, she’s a “hockey mom” and through the magic of identity politics she is going to make female voters swarm across party lines in numbers that Gerry Ferraro never dreamed of since this identity politics hokum is only a good idea that is certain to work when, um, we Republicans try to do it.
And scene…
This entry was posted on Friday, September 5th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, McCain, Palin, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Okay, so, Palin identifies herself as a “hockey mom”…
Does that mean that once she scrapes off the lipstick, we have a pit bull? :p
Joking, folks!
–Ag
September 5th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Of course, the Democrats can nominate the 2nd and 4th most liberal members of the senate (only the self-avowed “socialist” from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has a more liberal voting record than Barack Obama), and this should appeal to independent voters such as Justin, because after all, they offer “hope.” What does Sarah Palin have to offer?
September 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Some interesting points. I still think that Palin is panem et circeses for conservatives so they don’t pay too much attention to the top of the ticket. With Palin as an opiate for the right, McCain is free to go after the middle without the distraction of the conservatives questioning him about immigration, for example.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
@ExiledIndependent
I agree. She’s got the base dazzled, and is making it possible for the “Maverick” to reemerge. That in turn is making people like me like McCain again. Presumably swing voters may like him again, too. She was a brilliant choice, and could really give John a shot – but not because of the all the women she’ll attract, but because she gives him cover to be himself again. Fascinating.