CNN Post Debate Poll: Obama 51%, McCain 38%
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Debates, McCain, Polls
If Obama won by 13% among all voters, that’s pretty significant. And if he won by that amount among independents, it’s even more significant.
An explanation…
About an hour ago, I posted about a CBS snap poll that showed a 14% post-debate spread among independents who thought Obama won it.
Now, I haven’t found out if the CNN poll represents all voters view, but if it does it means that independents probably broke even more significantly for Obama in these numbers than then did in the CBS given that McCain’s support from the base has been much more loyal than Obama’s.
So why the poor numbers for McCain?
Perhaps it was his shaky start. After all, if the first 10 minutes of a movie isn’t too good, people usually don’t have such a high opinion of it. The same could be said for this debate, where the economy dominated the first 30 and Obama clearly won. McCain didn’t have much to offer besides cutting earmarks, and it was apparent.
But when the debate moved to foreign policy, McCain hit his stride. He obviously has a mastery of this subject, but it’s not like Obama sounded unstudied. In fact, he contrasted McCain’s worldview with his own extremely effectively, and that’s why I deemed it a tie at the time.
So, what’s the conclusion?
Well, the numbers from two different news orgs are within 1 point of each other and both show a big gain for Obama. That certainly suggests that he will at least win it when the “non-snap” polls come out tomorrow since the margins are large. But, of course, anything can happen, and CBS and CNN may be completely, dead wrong. However, I think that’s unlikely.
We shall see…
This entry was posted on Friday, September 26th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Debates, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 27th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Being a democrat, obviously I am way too prejudiced to say Obama didnt win. If independents think Obama won, I would suggest it was due to McCains attempt at dominating the conversation with incredibly long run on sentences, his condescension, sneering, and wise guy attitute. I fault Obama for not being as rude as McCain in filling the airwaves with the sound of his own voice. Obama continually allowed McCain to dominate the time, while repeating excerpts from all his campaign speeches. McCain was annoying to me, but I would expect any republican would be.
September 27th, 2008 at 12:23 am
I think McCain’s lack of eye contact and his over all body language were a factor in how people received his answers. He sounded a little dismissive and i dont know if that played well.
September 27th, 2008 at 12:46 am
McCain’s lack of eye contact could be the thing, but I think it has much more to do with the idea that McCain just didn’t come off as very steady.
What do u think?
September 27th, 2008 at 12:47 am
Regarding body language:
I think thats a point which hasn’t been played out fully yet.
I’m wondering how many people were in a social area watching the debate, but not hearing it.
(bars at Applebees, TGIFridays, airports, etc)
I suppose its not as much as I make it out to be, but at the same time, isn’t there something to be said about the subliminal visual images taken in 90 minutes of that body language?
September 27th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Wow, there’s a different story told by Matt Drudge on the drudge report. He has a live poll going there and the results are about as different as could be.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:17 am
Kinda similar to ron paul winning every debate with an open vote on the internet.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:17 am
Let me get this straight. If you all went to a store to buy a cup, looks would be most important? Let’s say you have two to choose from. On the right is something that you don’t agree would fall into the category “cup” at all. On the left you see what inherently looks like a cup. At this point you make your decision and have obviously bought the one on the left. When you get it home you fill it with water, but it all leaks out because it has no bottom. Had you chosen the one on the right, you would have found that it didn’t match anything in your house, but held water perfectly fine. Obama is a cup with no bottom. He speaks great and matches every other politician in the kitchen, but if he were to take office…God help us. McCain is wise, steadfast and has lived a LIFETIME in the political grind. Why, after so many years (who among YOU will even be WORKING at that age) would he continue? Because he cares and knows that he has the ability to help. Obama WANTS to be president…McCain would ACCEPT the presidency “with a servants heart”.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:25 am
Stunt after stunt McCain quickly digs his hole.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:43 am
John Mc Cain is wise and steadfast? Living a lifetime in the political grind doesn’t make someone correct or able. Like McCain has proven; you can be wrong alot and still be in the political grind.
This notion that somehow McCain came across as some sort of cup thingy…?? McCain did show the stark contrast with Obama in his world view. “You’re either for us or against us.” This pigheaded approach is EXACTLY what got us here today. Insanity can be defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. That’s what electing John McCain would be – Insanity!
September 27th, 2008 at 1:55 am
speaking of rhetoric and speeches – good job with that one.
Let me see if I can sum up your argument Zac:
Obama has no “bottom” on his cup because – why? God help us? Color me convinced.
And we should vote McCain because he’s old. And there’s no way someone old could do anything but because they care.
So political ambition doesn’t factor into this at all?
And you are directly equating age with intelligence and wisdom?
A story for you. Let’s say you have two cups to choose from. You choose the old one because, well, its old. You take it home, and the handle falls off, and breaks – shattering and making your foot bleed a little. But its ok, you got a free dixie cup for buying the old cup. But you find the dixie cup is not fit for drinking from because it has no “experience”, is a hard core right wing christianist from the depths of Bush politics, and left the town it used to mayor millions of dollars in debt.
See, the old cup is mccain, and the dixie cup is palin.
September 27th, 2008 at 1:57 am
if mccain does care about this country, he would admit it to himself that here is a younger, more able, more intelligent, more suited man for the job. and obama even as a young man had achieved his goals. this country might end up in the bottom 5 like mccain was in his graduating class.
September 27th, 2008 at 2:24 am
McCain won by a landslide. I think some of the polls are done by calling districts that are traditionally democratic, which makes them entirely un-scientific. Network bias proves this to be very possible. If who “won” the debate is based on the most knowledgeable, competent person to lead the greatest nation on earth…The answer is clear: John McCain. Obama was jittery, rude with continuous interruptions, and near hostile at times. John McCain was clear, precise, substantive, and direct with his answers. One point he made very clear: He is the one who works with democrats and republicans – Obama does not, proved with his 97% “left” voting record. How do you trust a guy who says he will unite democrats and republicans but his record proves he doesn’t do that? Obama is scary: It is proved he changes positions just to try to get elected. McCain is solid as a rock, and the ONLY candidate we can trust to lead this nation.
September 27th, 2008 at 3:41 am
This was a resounding victory for McCain. He showed a knowledge of the economy, foreign affairs, and fiscal responsibility. Obama mostly agreed with McCain.
September 27th, 2008 at 4:53 am
lol @ John Locke.
Talk about projection.
How many different positions did John McCain take on the economic crisis last week? There were a few days were he made 180 flips before the sun even set.
Unfortunately, the “straight talk express” pulled out of the station, and hasn’t been seen since at least June.
lol again. Those are some of the very same words that I might have used to describe John McCain during this minute debate.
I guess we really do see things through our own partisan filter.
… it’s actually kind of fascinating how we can all watch the exact same debate and a few of us come away with such diametrically opposing views.
September 27th, 2008 at 5:26 am
How could people think Obama won? My God!
September 27th, 2008 at 5:46 am
I think most people see what they want to see–heck, if anyone watched a Palin interview and thought she did well, they are delusional.
I think McCain did come off as condescending at times withhis smirk and my opponant just doesn’t understand (when Obama clearly did), but I am nonetheless amazed at these numbers.
I split the debate into two halves–debate 1 the bailout and ramifications and debate 2 foreign policy. Personality aside, I was surprised McCain did as well as he did.
Debate 1, issue wise, Obama had the lead, but other than a minor stumble in presentation which he righted, I thought McCain edged Obama in presentation. Still I gave Obama a 5.5 to 4.5 lead
Debate 2 I thought McCain owned. Obama did well, no doubt. He clearly did his homework, but there were times when McCain punched and Obama failed to counter, I gave that to McCain 6 to 4.
Overall, that means I had McCain edging Obama 10.5 to 9.5.
I’m surprised at the big swing in the early polls and don’t put muhc stock in them. People don’t score debates like a debate judge. They look at them and say, who makes me feel better. Right now, with the economy, McCain’s strength in foreign policy doesn’t allay their fears. He didn’t do poorly on the economy and scored a few points that Obama didn’t counter, but the condescension (that I don’t factor into scoring) was clearly a turnoff for people.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:21 am
How is Obama going to cut taxes on 95% of Americans win only 67% of Americans actually pay taxes? John McCain wants to cut taxes on large companies not to help them make more profits but to allow them to grow and make it possible for new businesses to come here and old businesses to stay here. It is just simple common sense that when you raise taxes on a business they raise prices on the consumer until they can’t raise them anymore and they have to go belly up. If Obama does what he proposes you will see a rapid decline in our economy and many many business fail and even more people loosing their jobs. So what if he cuts the middle class taxes a little bit if prices of everything skyrocket it won’t matter because you will still be broke if you are lucky enough to keep your job! Check your history Democrats never cut taxes for the middle class because they want as much of our money as possible to keep control of our lives. This election REALLY COUNTS! I love my country to much to see it fall, and thats what is going to happen if Obama gets it!!
September 27th, 2008 at 6:39 am
I found the instant poll feature on CNN during the debate interesting for figuring out the snap poll results.
It seemed that the independents were not very interested in McCain’s discussion of the Iraq war. However, interest skyrocketed when the discussion turned to domestic matters like health insurance.
McCain may have had better answers for how to deal with Iraq, but the public is just focused on other matters right now.
This is a well-known sentiment, so it will be interesting to see what stunt the current administration pulls in October to refocus the voters attention onto defense matters.
September 27th, 2008 at 6:43 am
It didn’t help that McCain came across as angry at times.
I understand passion, but he seemed a little more worked up than necessary. Combining his behavior during the debate with his random shifts over the course of the last week could have also helped decrease his poll results.
September 27th, 2008 at 7:25 am
Barack Obama won and owned the debate. I was going to vote for McCain, but now I am leaning toward Barack. Last night I saw McCain as a snobbish nasty judgmental person. I was surprised Barack could hold his own and then some in foreign affairs.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:05 am
Actually for the first question, McCain agreed with Obama.
I think Obama held himself better, he answered questions directly and eloquently, and I thought he made a lot of good points. Personally I enjoyed watching him elegantly interrupt McCain. I thought it showed good sportmanship in the debate. Much better than McCain just talking on forever.
This may be a minor point, but to the guy who said McCain was a wise cup…I’d much rather have the intelligent “Obama cup” who has the potential to be a great President…not the “McCain cup” who has proven he would make a shitty President for many years.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:20 am
This was a debate between a delusional 72-year old senator with evident 30+ years of Washington on his head and shoulders and a 47-year old senator that still does not have “the full Washington experience”. Obama beat McCain in all foreign policy points. He could have been more aggressive perhaps -like asking direct questions about why McCain helped reelect GW Bush in 2004 in spite of all his alleged disagreements or why “Mr Stairght Talk” uses the euphemism “Washington” instead of saying “Bush” (George Washington is no longer in the White House)
The tide is for Obama, and his greatest asset is GW Bush in the White House finishing the demolishion of America’s international standing in the world and Americans’ jobs and savings. I look forward to see how McCain will defend his “deregulation”, “tax cuts”, 10 billion dollar-a-month Iraq spending (to support an “ally” .. of Iran that is in “direct talks” and hosting Ahmedinajad) and his proposal of floating Americans health care and social security in the stock market.
In spite the racist hidden “tax” (6 % effect), 527s, and swiftboating books and press, Obama is set to be the next President. Remember the post-Watergate vote that propelled Jimmy “Who” Carter? That was peanuts compare with Mortgagegate and the recession that is closing on US (and us).
I will start using a button “Bush for Obama”.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Can anybody sane imagine 4 more years like these last 4? (just not to mention the previous 4). Can anybody imagine what is going to happen if a hothead 72-year old warmonger like McCain continues the “all sticks no carrots”, preemptive war policies of Bush II? Tellingly, McCain will not cut the Defense budget -just all the others and taxes for his lobbyists-.
Can anyone imagine how life will look after this crash if on top of that we have this mix of Herbert Hoover approach to economics + Teddy Roosevelt approach to foreign policy in the White House?
Btw, McCain is the one that doesn’t understand the difference between “strategy”: why we got to war and what is “victory” and “tactics”,- such as the surge. With the surge’s “success”, we will have -at best- installed and supported with taxpayer money an ally… of Iran.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:35 am
# steve Says:
September 27th, 2008 at 12:48 am
“Wow, there’s a different story told by Matt Drudge on the drudge report. He has a live poll going there and the results are about as different as could be.”
*****************************************************************
Of course! Drudge writes his own stories! They’re fiction. Alexandra Polier, anyone?
I’ll throw in my own peals of laughter with Todd’s–John Locke, what were you watching?
Of course, we needn’t rely on our memories of last night; CSPAN will no doubt replay this thing throughout the weekend.
And of course, some of us saved it to hard disc… ;)
September 27th, 2008 at 8:42 am
If you want to understand the CNN poll, and the “Obama Win”, read a little farther down in the story of the poll:
The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.
Gee, they oversampled Democrats by 14 percentage points, and Obama comes out as the winner. What a surprise!
The headline doesn’t always tell you the real story.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:47 am
The Fox News poll had McCain winning with 82% of the vote. I thought McCain won. Obama looked like a high school debate captain that had looked up as many arguments as he could to support his positions, McCain looked like a genuine leader.
I did wish McCain had defended himself in response to the “you were wrong” rant. McCain said we would be greeted as liberators, we were. Even Obama wrote that when they pulled down the statue he wondered if he had been wrong to oppose the war. We defeated Saddam Hussein’s regime just as McCain predicted. Unfortunately McCain was also right in predicting that there would be problems if we did not send in more troops – but if his advice had been taken that could have been averted.
The one area where McCain might have been wrong was WMDs but, if so, his mistake was shared by the intelligence agencies of several countries. Obama admitted that he does not know what he would have done if he’d seen the intelligence shown to Senate members at the time.
September 27th, 2008 at 8:49 am
McCain used his years of experience and knowledge of foreign policy well. We expected him to be able to do that. This was a debate about foreign policy. However, Obama did so well in showing his also deep understanding about foreign policy that Mc Cain wasn’t able to “score any real points ” with voters. That’s what he was supposed to do last night. McCain talked about flexibility in the next president regarding foreign policy, but there was no flexibility in either his own demeanor or in his attitude. He has only one view – bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran and war in general.
September 27th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Dear Don’tBstupid…
Obama’s cutting the taxes of 95% of the Americans WHO DO PAY TAXES.
The country can’t cut the taxes of people who already pay none. Are you suggesting that should be possible?
September 27th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Obama won, and here’s why. The country wants change. Both candidates have two very different jobs to do. John McCain has to prove he can bring about change. Barack Obama has to prove he’s qualified to be commander-in-chief.
John McCain did not offer ANY change last night on foreign policy or domestic policy, other than cutting government spending. The problem with that is that he’s been in Washington for 26 years and the only time we’ve had a balanced budget is when a Democrat was in the White House.
Obama erased any doubts that he lacks an understanding of the world, and in fact demonstrated an understanding of its complexities. He made it clear that he’s willing to use military force to protect America’s vital interests, a key threshold for Democrats.
AND, most importantly, is the demeanor of the two. McCain came across as angry and partisan. Obama was calm and non-partisan. McCain’s anger will appeal to those who are angry about the economy right now, but anger is a sugar rush that doesn’t last very long. Partisanship appeals to his base, but the undecideds in the middle ARE looking for someone who is going to bring the country together to solve problems.
September 27th, 2008 at 10:43 am
DontBStupid, Obama will raise taxes to the levels of Clinton, and some will be even lower than Clinton, which saw a fairly rapid expansion in our economy. Not to give credit to Clinton, but clearly these taxes did not shrink the economy.
Research, find credible information, see your name.
September 27th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
http://www.electiontaxes.com to see how much taxes each candidate will make you pay.
BTW, this american attitude of that people somehow ‘deserve’ taxcuts is the same irresponsibility as demonstrated on Wall street.
Taxes are very good for a country. rules are even better.
September 27th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Referring to Obama, someone stated above that
“It is proved he changes positions just to try to get elected.”
That is the best characterization of McCain, and not of Obama, I have heard thus far. McCain is constantly changing back and forth (translation: flip-flopping) and says he is for “change.”
September 27th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
[...] to CNN, “Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night’s debate, [...]
September 27th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Obama has the upper hand: G.W. Bush’s regime collapse. After 8 years, US is isolated in the world, surrounded by enemies fortified with 150 dollar oil and unified by 5 years of Iraq fruitless ocupation, on the verge of bankrupcy and economic recession and with a 9.8 trillion dollar deficit, bleeding at 12 billion dollars a month to keep and fortify in power a Shia, pro-Iranian regime that is already holding “direct talks” and joint foreign policy with Iran. Petreus Army has both hands caught in stopping the flood from the cracks in Afghanistan/Pakistan border and Iraq, thus unable to confront Iran or Al Qaeda, or to defend Israel for that matter.
McCain’s approach to foreign policy (and economics) is that of a kamikaze pilot: throw himself into the flames and die with the enemy -like Custer in Little Big Horn or Dabid Crockett in the Alamo-.
With Bush’s collapse hurricane winds behind, even Rin-Tin-Tin could beat McCain.
In spite of the Clintons hanging from his throat and Pelosi-Reid-DNC’s self-destructive powers, Obama will get into the White House in the same manner FDR did: out of voters’ horror with the alternative.
September 27th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
McCain was passive-aggressive, condescending and dismissive throughout. Obama managed to remain dignified, quick and gracious while showing a command of the issues.
McCain is obsessively stuck in his 20th century mindset, while Obama is thoroughly rooted in the issues of the 21st.
Obama won hands down.
September 27th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
[...] so my opinions are moot. Here’s the post-debate poll results, and another link, and just one more [...]
September 27th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Anyone who puts any stock in a Fox poll or a poll on Drudge report is truly misguided. With the country roughly split 50-50 democrat vs republican, any trustworthy poll on the debate should be fairly close to that split. Most reaction to the debate was fairly even with slight edges given to one or the other usually based on the commentators leanings.
Fox at 80%+ for McCain? Drudge with a roughly 75% poll for McCain? What a joke. All these polls show are the built in bias that these media outlets attract, heavily conservative. That’s the real number inside the numbers for these polls.
September 28th, 2008 at 1:35 am
Erik Sickinger… That was the greatest comment ive seen on this website in the months ive been reading. I was going to reply to the cup rant but you handled it perfectly lol. I was laughing so hard when i read it.
As for DontBstupid.. please, take your own advice.. i dont think i have to remind you that republican politics brought about the great depression… AND the end of S&L’s AND the current economic problems we’re facing.. wait, i guess i just did.. go take a history class. the “free market solves everything” mentality is wrong and flat-out STUPID. Economic growth when democrats are leading is slow and steady and redistributes the wealth from the ultra rich to the middle and lower class. Economic growth when republicans are in contol is erratic, often results in a recession or depression, and redistributes the wealth from the lower and middle class to the ultra rich.
If lying were a crime (and i really think it should be when it comes to politics) republicans would get 2% of the vote from the CEOs and billionaires. The only thing they have to run on are lies and moronic christians.. and ironically they only get the moronic christians to vote for them by… lying. They run on Abortion year after year and 6 of the last 8 years we had a rep majority congress and a rep president.. did they ban abortion? im pretty sure its still legal? why is that? OH YEAH! brainless christians will vote for not killing babies the next time around too!!!
And i dont say this because im some nut who hates religion or whatever. i say this because i have an Aunt who was sucked into a Pentacostle (however thats spelled) church by her husband, and it is a cult. they have LITERALLY brainwashed her she used to be extremely intelligent, and had a great career as nurse, now she is a stay at home wife because in her church thats what women SHOULD BE and even though she used to be a democrat she now votes republican because her church preaches politics. I live in Texas and i see these churches all over the place with signs supporting republicans, or bashing pro-choice. I can say without a single doubt in my mind if jesus were here today he would not support republican ideals. im pretty sure he was a big advocate of free-will and helping the poor/needy.
i really cant understand it.. i cant figure out what the church gets out of telling people to vote republicans. there are only 2 possibilities.. its either some huge conspiracy, or they are simply idiots… and i think the latter is more likely
on another note.. this entire bailout plan is looking more and more like an attempt by the republicans to privatize the F.D.I.C. if that happens.. were all royally f****d
September 28th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Zac:
You have been staring into your cups far too long. Snap out of it. Time to wake up and let Palin fly the plane….err, the cup? You have to be kidding.
September 28th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
I feel like I watched a completely different debate than everyone else. Okay, granted, I’m fairly conservative, but I thought that Obama stumbled over all of his words with his uh,uh’s and if anyone seemed condescending it was him. I think McCain seems like a stern old grandpa, and allthough I’d rather invite Obama over for dinner, I’d trust McCain to house sit for me. McCain seemed to really know what he was talking about and spoke clearly and relavently about the topics, while I felt that Obama spouted a bunch of pre-scripted blah blah blah. McCain is passionate about what he speaks. Obama seems to say what he thinks will win him the election and make people happy. I’m liking McCain more and more every time I hear him speak.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:37 am
I think it’s interesting that McCain supporters insist to grow the economy you must cut taxes on big business. They say it will lead to them investing in the country and boosting the economy. But let’s look at reality. The Bush tax cuts that businesses already use do little for our economy. Multinationals that headquarter in the U.S. give nothing back for the generous tax cuts bestowed upon them. They develop their overseas production sites because it’s more profitable. All they’ve done is create opportunity for countries like China, Mexico, and Vietnam. I fail to see how giving these companies more tax cuts will benefit the U.S. at all. However, Obama’s plan to give tax incentives to businesses that actually hire people in their communities and contribute to the local economy would be effective.
By the way, have we all forgotten one of the major contributors to the Wall Street mess is the collapse of manufacturing in this country? It’s the direct result of these big companies moving overseas and outsourcing. How many mortgages are going to be paid when people have no income?
October 7th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
[...] Wow. This is even bigger than last time, which was Obama 51%, McCain 38%. [...]
October 15th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
[...] First Debate: Obama 51%, McCain 38% [...]