Electoral Outlook Looks Great For Obama
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, PollsAs a starter, Obama is up by 5 points or more in pretty much every single daily tracking poll. And it’s widely known that electoral projections rely on state polls, which usually trail the daily nationals by about a week. This is why we didn’t see an immediate uptick for McCain in the electoral counts in the days following the convention, even though his national poll numbers were up.
Long story short, Obama’s looking good in all of the electoral models and they don’t even factor in his recent upswing in the daily nationals.
Five Thirty Eight: Obama 336, McCain 202
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 286, McCain 190, Ties 62
Real Clear Politics: Obama 348, McCain 190
Pollster: Obama 250, McCain 174, Ties 114
Electoral Projection Averages: Obama 327, McCain 201
To account for the ties, I gave each candidate 22 electoral votes out of the 44 left, even though that may not necessarily correspond with electoral votes available. This is supposed to be more of a gauge than anything.
The thing to take away from all of this is that this election is getting closer to a reality where voter preferences will not change very much and Obama has enough electoral votes to win, even without the swing states.
As mentioned previously, you can bet the McCain camp is seeing these numbers and preparing a barrage of negative ads to drive up Obama’s negatives. The only issue with this is Obama has the debate platform to combat this and help reassure voters he’s not the bogeyman that McCain is trying to make him out to be.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Justin,
You should start adding Intrade to these state poll posts, while it isn’t polling it performed better than the Gallup poll the day before the 2004 election in actually predicting who would win, and gives an interesting methodology contrast with the pollsters.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Eh, I should’ve waited and gone down three posts, sorry.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:01 pm
[...] we don’t what’ll happen come election time, but between this news, the new electoral projections and word that polling outfits may not be capturing the voting preferences of cell phone users [...]
October 1st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
There really has been a substantial shift recently.
Not only does Obama look pretty solid in just about all the states he needs to reach 270, he’s threatening in OH, FL, IN, MO, and NV. And VA and NC, which surprises me. If Obama takes most of those states (the yellow ones in the last map above), we’re in landslide territory, electorally speaking.
That leaves McCain with only Texas, Georgia, and a thin basketful of, let’s face it, twinkie states.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:24 pm
[...] I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even [...]
October 1st, 2008 at 5:22 pm
I thought this country was supposed to be too racist to elect a black man. Wasn’t that what the media was telling us just a few days ago?
October 1st, 2008 at 6:43 pm
If Obama wins, one of the most tedious aftereffects will be the lengthy and widespread echoes of comments like yours, Jimmy. If Obama gets elected, do we really have to listen to conservatives making sidelong suggestions that his election sort of proves America has shed virtually all important vestiges of racism, yada, yada, yada?
Here’s the thing. I spent a lot of time working in a blue-collar subculture. So I’ve been a first hand witness on multiple occasions to kitchen and bar conversations about how the niggers over-ran this or that neighborhood and how they’re dumb and lazy and so on. Now, unless all of my 40-something contemporaries from back in the day are dead, then I know for a fact that there will be plenty of folks out there who won’t vote for Obama just because he’s black.
I don’t know how many is too many Jimmy. Do you?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:57 pm
[...] this is the average of all the projections from the top electoral sites: Obama 327, McCain [...]
October 2nd, 2008 at 4:04 am
Gee Jimmy, maybe the country isn’t too racist (although I still have my doubts) but you certainly are.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
[...] 5 days ago I did this same post, and since Obama’s national polling lead is holding steady, I thought I’d run the numbers again to see if there was any lift in his direction. [...]