Swing State Polls Signal Big Electoral Shift For Obama

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Florida, McCain, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Polls, Virginia

Earlier I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even more good news for his camp.

The key here is that Obama has crossed the 50% threshold in most of these polls with just a little more than a month to go. That’s incredibly significant since, traditionally, once a candidate crosses that 50% line it’s hard for the challenger to make up enough ground to beat them. It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s one hell of an uphill battle.

First Quinnipiac shows big gains for Obama in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

Then CNN/TIME polling shows similar trends…

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

Of note, McCain was never expected to win either Minnesota or Pennsylvania, but they have been closer this election season. Now they seem to be completely out of reach.

Also, a surprise Obama pickup could be Missouri, which was seen as a near gimme for McCain. So if the Illinois senator actually does capture the POTUS and wins the Show-Me state in a squeaker (as he did in the primaries against Hillary), Missouri will continue its streak of picking the right candidate in every single election in the past 100 years except for one.


This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Florida, McCain, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Polls, Virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “Swing State Polls Signal Big Electoral Shift For Obama”

  1. ed Says:

    if i were the media and the dem. party i would not get to excited just yet as we all know it would only take a international incident to over shaddow the economy, and also the polls go on the assumption that the new voters are for obama and that the younger vote will turn out which is questionable.

  2. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Pollster.com: Voters Don’t Change Their Mind In October Says:

    [...] today I shared a bunch of new swing state poll numbers and at the time I said that these were significant not only for the fact that Obama had cracked the [...]

  3. Gary Rankin Says:

    John if I were you and Sarah I would take One of them transportation mode thingies up to dat there Alaska and git a cuple of them six paks and go out in one of them fields with all that white snow stuff on em and then drink them six paks and make some of them there snow angels holdin hands and prayin for some more of them voters in November but be careful some of them there Rushin enemee plains dont catch ya , cuz they probabli no you can see em from the alaskan frontear You could alwaze take one of them 13 house kees and go hide in one of them there houses if the goin gits tuff . If you end that there conflict in Irack yer sons culd come home and guard yer houses without needin some more of that armour weer sendin over there

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