Krauthammer: It’s Over
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain
Frankly, I’m shocked to see so many Republicans essentially throwing in the towel, but I can understand. They realize that McCain has run an awful campaign, has no time left to come back and picked a laughably bad candidate for his second in command who, stunningly, makes George Bush look studied. Trust me, Republicans are deeply embarrassed over the Palin pick, regardless of what they’re saying post-debate.
Krauthammer explains why Obama, like Reagan, has everything working in his favor:
In the primary campaign, Obama was cool as in hip. Now Obama is cool as in collected. He has the discipline to let slow and steady carry him to victory. He has not at all distinguished himself in this economic crisis — nor, one might add, in any other during his national career — but detachment has served him well. He understands that this election, like the election of 1980, demands only one thing of the challenger: Make yourself acceptable. Once Ronald Reagan convinced America that he was not menacing, he won in a landslide. If Obama convinces the electorate that he is not too exotic or green or unprepared, he wins as well.
So is he right? Is it over?
The short answer is: probably. There’s now about an 80% chance Obama will win and a 20% chance that McCain will take it. Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has it 83.8% to 16.2%, but I’ll give McCain a little. Still, it’s a significant margin and almost impossible to overcome.
What’s more, if they tie in the next debate on Tuesday, the spread goes up to 90% to 10%. And after a tie in the third debate it hits 95% to 5%. So McCain does have two more chances, but does anybody think Obama will falter that badly to swing it back McCain’s way enough to matter?
And that’s why folks like Krauthammer are getting in front of this meme now. Because they’d rather be seen as right instead of loyal.
In the end, I think there’s a pretty good chance that we’ll be debating the margin of victory on election day, not the victor.
This entry was posted on Friday, October 3rd, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Hah! Check the live debate thread, I called this last night.
Krauthammer stole my meme!
Krauthammer stole my meme!
Krauthammer stole my meme!
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:57 am
It’s interesting that Republicans never really trusted McCain, and that his abismal campaign performance has essentially proven them right. I doubt we’ll see many pols in the coming years declaring themselves “Maverick”. “Maverick” may now forever be associated with rash incompetence.
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
Justin, how can you write all that analysis about why McCain is losing but forget to mention the main reason he is losing. It’s the economy stupid. The rest is just overblown partisan talk. It’s a factor but much much smaller than you think it is. If it wasn’t for the economy and the bailout issue McCain would probably still be losing but not by nearly by as much.
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:52 am
BBQ;
The economy hurt McCain, yes. But a savvy pol, Republican or Democrat, knows how to use any bad turn of events to his advantage. McCain tried, but failed to push the idea that he could be the savior of Wall Street and therefor Main Street. Had he been able to show himself more talented in the economic arena, and not said things like, “[I don't really know much about the economy,]“, or, “[the fundamentals of our economy are sound,]” he might have had a chance. Obama played it safe, didn’t say or do much, and therefor didn’t hurt himself. However, had McCain been able to display a strong grasp of the economy (or chosen Mitt Romney as his running mate), he’d almost certainly have turned the tables on a complacent Obama.
The reason why the economic downturn helped Obama as much as it did are because of the mistakes McCain made. Whats more — and I think this is the biggie - he never set one specific line of attack on Obama. First it was inexperienced, then it was celebrity (which was actually working), and so on. Had he stuck with one consistent method of attack, and really driven that point home, he might have had a chance.
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Nah, I agree with BBQ. The general public has neither the time nor the inclination for the sophisticated political calculus that various kranky wonks like us prefer.
I strongly suspect the general public’s calculus as manifested in Obama’s poll surge of the last 3 weeks goes about like this:
Wall Street screwed up big time.
This has screwed the general public big time.
The GOP is by far the party more cozy with Wall Street.
Game. Set. Match.
October 3rd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Fine points by people here. To help sum it up for people so they can seem prescient, McCain will lose because of:
1. The economy
2. The war(s)
3. McCain campaign blunders
4. Obama campaign advantages (money, sane managers, etc)
5. Public souring on Republicans
6. General conservative unease with McCain
Can anyone think of any more points? I mean, let’s be honest here, Obama is a black liberal Democrat with a funny name. He should have been beated down multiple times before this, and McCain should have plumbed the Clinton-Obama divide for maximum effect. Instead he dithered too long, then played his supposed trump, Palin, without considering alternatives.
With the economy going south, it looks like pundits are more interested in keeping their jobs and readership and credibility instead of being complete propaganda organs.
October 3rd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Ok, let’s be honest. Great idea. This doesn’t matter nearly as much as it used to, and to many folks it doesn’t matter at all.
Let’s be even more honest. Some people have a vested interest in continuing to insist that this still matters quite a bit, and continually keep trying to inflate folks’ impressions of how much it’s mattering.
October 3rd, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Obama is winning because he out-organized and out-thought McCain. That’s what being an organizer will do for you…