2 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this:
Electoral Projection Averages 10.06.08: Obama 340, McCain 198.
So what could happen in two days?
Five Thirty Eight: Obama 346.8, McCain 191.2
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, Ties 15
Real Clear Politics: Obama 364, McCain 174
Pollster: Obama 320, McCain 163, Ties 55
Electoral Projection Averages 10.08.08: Obama 354, McCain 184
Obama has added 14 and that means McCain has lost the same number.
As always, I split “Ties” as evenly as I can between the candidates, even though that may not be an accurate representation of how the actual electoral votes would be allocated.
I’ll keep doing this when I see any shifts in the numbers, which I definitely anticipate in the coming days as the state polls catch up with the most reliable daily nationals, those being Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s.
However, we’re honestly starting to see Obama hit a electoral ceiling. Because if Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina keep trending his way (which is shown above in the Real Clear Politics map), the only state left that I think he has a realistic shot at getting is Indiana. And if the Hoosier state goes blue, the numbers will be as such: Obama 375, McCain 163.
At this point I don’t think that’s very likely, but unless he can somehow swing Georgia into his column, 375 is the highest he can go.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.