Electoral Outlook Gets Even Better For Obama?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

2 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this:

Electoral Projection Averages 10.06.08: Obama 340, McCain 198.

So what could happen in two days?

Plenty.

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 346.8, McCain 191.2


Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, Ties 15


Real Clear Politics: Obama 364, McCain 174


Pollster: Obama 320, McCain 163, Ties 55


Electoral Projection Averages 10.08.08: Obama 354, McCain 184

Obama has added 14 and that means McCain has lost the same number.

As always, I split “Ties” as evenly as I can between the candidates, even though that may not be an accurate representation of how the actual electoral votes would be allocated.

I’ll keep doing this when I see any shifts in the numbers, which I definitely anticipate in the coming days as the state polls catch up with the most reliable daily nationals, those being Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s.

However, we’re honestly starting to see Obama hit a electoral ceiling. Because if Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina keep trending his way (which is shown above in the Real Clear Politics map), the only state left that I think he has a realistic shot at getting is Indiana. And if the Hoosier state goes blue, the numbers will be as such: Obama 375, McCain 163.

At this point I don’t think that’s very likely, but unless he can somehow swing Georgia into his column, 375 is the highest he can go.

More as it develops…


This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “Electoral Outlook Gets Even Better For Obama?”

  1. atronic92 Says:

    According to http://www.270towin.com, Obama has a 99.9% chance to win, McCain has a 0.0% chance of winning, and there is a 0.1% chance of a tie. That’s right, out of 1000 simulations only one is a tie and McCain doesn’t win at all.

    See their neat simulation at: http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
    or the results at: http://www.270towin.com/simulation/visualizer.php

  2. atronic92 Says:

    Please get a new CAPCHA. It took me about 15 tries to enter my comment. For some, I couldn’t read it. For others, I put EXACTLY what it said, yet it still was wrong. I tried listening to an audio CAPCHA, but I couldn’t get the right numbers either. Make your CAPCHA easier to use! I can only wonder how many people wanted to post a comment but did not because they tried 5 CAPCHAS and gave up.

  3. Justin Gardner Says:

    atronic, first, my apologies for that.

    However, I’ve researched other Captcha’s and this is by far one of the most reliable I’ve found. My apologies you had trouble with it, but in the future if you have problems go ahead and just copy the text of your comment so you don’t lose it and reload the entire page. Then resubmit. When I have problems with the Captcha (probably once a month), that’s what I do and it usually goes right through.

    Again, my apologies for the inconvenience.

  4. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Obama and the Potential Bradley Effect Says:

    [...] McCain when everyone stops talking about how close the elections will be and starts talking about Barack Obama’s big lead and the potential for a rout. So, should Obama supporters start ordering the cake and balloons for [...]

  5. Donklephant » Blog Archive » McCain Gains On Obama In Electoral College Says:

    [...] 4 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this: [...]

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