McCain Gains On Obama In Electoral College
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls4 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this:
Electoral Projection Averages 10.08.08: Obama 354, McCain 184
So what could happen in four days?
Take a look…
FiveThirtyEight: Obama 349.4, McCain 188.6
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 343, McCain 184, Ties 11
Real Clear Politics: Obama 353, McCain 185
Pollster: Obama 320, McCain 158, Ties 60
Electoral Projection Averages 10.12.08: Obama 350, McCain 188
McCain gains 4 and Obama loses the same.
As always, I split “Ties” as evenly as I can between the candidates, even though that may not be an accurate representation of how the actual electoral votes would be allocated.
As I stated last time, we’re starting to see Obama hit a electoral ceiling. Because if Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina keep trending his way (which is shown above in the Real Clear Politics map), the only states left are Indiana and West Virginia.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Sunday, October 12th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
October 13th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
What was the purpose of the electoral college when they created it? Wasn’t it 18th century travel and logistics problems that made it neccessary?