Dick Morris’ Crazy Electoral Map

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Partisan Hacks, Polls

Arkansas solidly blue?

Arizona and Tennessee leaning Obama?

Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina now toss ups?

Take a peek into the weird little corner of the blogopshere that is Dick Morris’ electoral predictions…

Want to know the real reason why Morris did this?

To push the McCain comeback meme…

If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain‘s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

But the campaign has three weeks to run. If the financial crisis begins to settle down, and voters can take a good look at the man they are about to elect president, there is still time and a real chance for a major swing back to McCain. It looks like the campaign 2008 roller coaster still has several more turns to make, before the historic ride is over.

He knows very well that his map doesn’t represent realistic numbers, so once McCain gains back a few states from the tossup column in the coming weeks it will represent the “major swing back to McCain” that he’s talking about.

Hacktackular stuff…my friends.


This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 15th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Partisan Hacks, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

16 Responses to “Dick Morris’ Crazy Electoral Map”

  1. ExiledIndependent Says:

    Prediction made here first–Obama’s votes on election day will be 7-10% lower than what polls are tracking. People are afraid of saying that the Emperor has no clothes, and a private voting booth is a powerful thing. Additionally, Obama is making a risky bet that traditionally low-turnout demographics like the youth vote will match action with intent and actually make it to the polling station.

  2. Rich Horton Says:

    Hey if you dont like Dick’s you can always use mine.

  3. Terra Says:

    Wow… and wow…

    Well as a person that traditionally didn’t vote, I can say at least one of those non voters is showing up this year to vote for Obama…

  4. Ed Says:

    Here’s my prediction: ExiledIndependent is going to be very disappointed on November 5th when his transparent rewording of the “Bradley Effect” doesn’t come true. Even so, the lame “empty suit” argument vs. Obama would have worked much better if McCain could himself pass the commander-in-chief test. No rational person looks at McCain and sees a temperament suited for the White House, nor do they see someone with the intelligence or aptitude to run the country.

  5. rusty075 Says:

    Exiled, the Bradley Effect has been pretty soundly debunked this cycle. A lot has changed since its namesake election. You should check out Nate Silver’s analysis of it over at FiveThirtyEight.

    Not that I want to give any credence to Morris’ wackiness, but he may not be far off about Arizona. Something odd started happening here in Phoenix last weekend: Obama has been buying commercial airtime. One of the blessings of being in one of the candidate’s home states is that we’ve seen zero presidential advertising since the Dem primary. But since last weekend there’s been about 1 Obama ad per hour during primetime on the local stations.

    Either Obama’s internals are telling him something, or he really does have money to burn.

  6. Justin Gardner Says:

    Rich, I actually think that’s right on. I think McCain will break 200 barely, and so Obama stays in the 330 range. That’s my prediction too.

  7. leapsecond Says:

    I don’t know what’s more astounding: Morris’s map or someone referring to Morris as a “political analyst extraordinaire”…

  8. bubbles Says:

    I’m not making any predictions until election day.

    But I will say that Obama’s got the wide advantage.

  9. Rich Horton Says:

    Just to clarify…my thoughts are based upon if the election were held today. There will be possible changes of course.

    Good to know I sound more plausible than Morris.

  10. Avinash_Tyagi Says:

    I’m predicting 333-405 Electoral Votes, with 364 being the most likely, based on recent polls

  11. The Good, the Bad, and the Insightful - October 15, 2008 « The 59 Second Minute Says:

    [...] Donklephant linked Dick Morris’s atrocious electoral predictions. [...]

  12. susan Says:

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

  13. Rich Horton Says:

    I never understand the point of trying to destroy federalism. Additionally, I’ve never seen an analysis that betters that of Madison, Hamilton and Jay.

    I’ve generally found that attempts to “fix” what isn’t broken only lead to actually breaking things.

  14. Jackson Says:

    Ed, you are a moron! McCain is a leader, experienced, mature, seasoned, a war hero and he will win this crazy election where everyone from CNN to CBS is in the tank for the other side. Obama is NOT the black madonna!
    People, wake up! This guy is a JUNIOR Senator with no real world experience to lead this nation.

  15. A Candidate Who Takes Care of His Own Says:

    [...] And let us stop and take a moment to note that Morris, perhaps better than anyone else in the media firmament, personifies the complete lack of intellectual accountability that poisons our punditocracy. His inerring propensity for erring makes him the George Costanza of pundits. That any media organization—even the shills at Fox News—would continue broadcast his idiotic, up-is-down ramblings across the public airwaves, rather than just let him bore the people sitting next to him at the 5:30 dinner seating, is a outright shame. Just as there are those rare standup comedians who represent the purest of the form, and are known fondly in the business as a “comic’s comic,” Morris has to have earned the dubious honor of a “hack’s hack,” someone who gets so many predictions wrong, so often, that even prominent gasbags like Jonah Goldberg, David Brooks, and Sean Hannity must shake their heads in wonder that he still has a job, despite a prodigious ability for terrible prognostications and boneheaded mistakes. [...]

  16. A Candidate Who Takes Care of His Own - The Wingnut | The Wingnut Says:

    [...] And let us stop and take a moment to note that Morris, perhaps better than anyone else in the media firmament, personifies the complete lack of intellectual accountability that poisons our punditocracy. His inerring propensity for erring makes him the George Costanza of pundits. That any media organization—even the shills at Fox News—would continue broadcast his idiotic, up-is-down ramblings across the public airwaves, rather than just let him bore the people sitting next to him at the 5:30 dinner seating, is a outright shame. Just as there are those rare standup comedians who represent the purest of the form, and are known fondly in the business as a “comic’s comic,” Morris has to have earned the dubious honor of a “hack’s hack,” someone who gets so many predictions wrong, so often, that even prominent gasbags like Jonah Goldberg, David Brooks, and Sean Hannity must shake their heads in wonder that he still has a job, despite a prodigious ability for terrible prognostications and boneheaded mistakes. [...]

Leave a Reply


NOTE TO COMMENTERS:


You must ALWAYS fill in the two word CAPTCHA below to submit a comment. And if this is your first time commenting on Donklephant, it will be held in a moderation queue for approval. Please don't resubmit the same comment a couple times. We'll get around to moderating it soon enough.


Also, sometimes even if you've commented before, it may still get placed in a moderation queue and/or sent to the spam folder. If it's just in moderation queue, it'll be published, but it may be deleted if it lands in the spam folder. My apologies if this happens but there are some keywords that push it into the spam folder.


One last note, we will not tolerate comments that disparage people based on age, sex, handicap, race, color, sexual orientation, national origin or ancestry. We reserve the right to delete these comments and ban the people who make them from ever commenting here again.


Thanks for understanding and have a pleasurable commenting experience.


Related Posts: