Gallup: Obama Up By 10, 10, 5
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, PollsObama gains 1 in the registered model and likely expanded model, and maintains his 5 point lead in the traditional likely model.
What’s more, he has hit the 53% mark in the expanded likely model, and there are no signs of McCain even coming close to making a dent in his lead.
The numbers…
Registered Voters: Obama +10
Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +10
Likely Voters (Traditional Model): Obama +5
Gallup talks about the likelihood of a McCain win given historical precedent…
History offers few examples of a trailing candidate mounting a successful comeback in the last week of the campaign. Gallup Poll presidential election trends since 1952 point to 1980 as the only case in which a candidate (Ronald Reagan) was behind in the Gallup Poll a week before the election, but went on to win the presidency. In 2000, Al Gore overcame a pre-election poll deficit in the final week to win the popular vote — but not the Electoral College.Campaign and political events occurred in both the 1980 and 2000 races which, arguably, could explain the late breaking shifts. Without such a “you know it when you see it” issue or event emerging in the next few days, a McCain victory would be without precedent.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Monday, October 27th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
