TIME/CNN: McCain, Obama Split Battlegrounds

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Polls, Virginia

The big news here is that Colorado is really starting to turn blue, and nearly every news organization has changed it to lean Obama.

Because while wins in Georgia and Missouri would be nice, Obama doesn’t need them. But he does need wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada if he doesn’t want to worry about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Although I’d bet my car that he wins Pennsylvania.

The numbers…

Georgia: McCain +5
McCain: 52%
Obama: 47%

Missouri: McCain +2
McCain: 50%
Obama: 48%

Virginia: Obama +9
Obama: 53%
McCain: 44%

Colorado: Obama +8
Obama: 53%
McCain: 45%

Florida: Obama +4
Obama: 51%
McCain: 47%

As I’ve stated before, I don’t think Obama will take Florida or Ohio, but I actually think he has a shot at Georgia given its extremely high African American population and their massive early voting turnout.

And Missouri? Well, who knows, but if Obama is elected history shows us that Missouri will probably turn blue. If not, it’ll probably be in McCain’s column.

Here’s a little more from CNN about their electoral map…

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN’s move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama’s estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Here’s their map…

More battleground polls soon…


This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Polls, Virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “TIME/CNN: McCain, Obama Split Battlegrounds”

  1. Elyas Says:

    I think he’ll take any state where he is within 1-2 points in the polls, and right now that includes FL and Ohio. His get-out-the-vote operation is going to be as well-oiled and massive as the rest of his campaign, and will probably add a couple points to the poll numbers we’re seeing now based on conservative likely voter models.

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