Pushing Obama Towards the Middle
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in Barack, Congress, Democrats
In the Daily News, centrist Democrat Bob Kerrey explains how Barack Obama, if elected, can succeed.
The key passage:
By my lights, the primary threat to the success of a President Obama will come from some Democrats who, emboldened by the size of their congressional majority, may try to kill trade agreements, raise taxes in ways that will destroy jobs, repeal the Patriot Act and spend and regulate to high heaven.This is where Obama’s persona is invaluable. He can withstand the arguments and pressure of the liberal wing in the Democratic caucus if, once elected, he is guided by the best instincts he has displayed on the campaign trail.
Obama certainly has a moderate temperament. Whether or not he has moderate governing instincts is undetermined.
The right would like us to believe he’s a radical and will conspire with Congress to wreak the kind of havoc Kerrey describes. But if Obama wants to be a successful president with broad support, he will heed Kerrey’s advice and serve not as the facilitator of his party’s worst instincts but as a leader who can pull the Democrats away from the tired leftist agendas of the last generation and towards new, center-left ideas for the future.
Kerrey probably hopes for too much. There is little in Obama’s record outside of his rhetoric that indicates he will buck his party in any real or lasting way. But, like many of those in the political middle, Kerrey has decided that our nation’s best bet is with Obama. If he’s elected, the trick will be making sure he knows he owes his presidency as much to the middle as to the base.
I suspect that is exactly why Kerrey wrote this piece.
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October 30th, 2008 at 9:06 am
…which makes Obama’s biggest threat, also his greatest opportunity. These guys are so smart, that I think they have already mapped out a plan for the moment when the left wing pushes too hard. Punto-reverso!
October 30th, 2008 at 9:29 am
What else would be the base of the democratic party but the middle class?
October 30th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Middle as in middle of the political spectrum.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:50 am
I dunno, what would you call standing up to and beating the Clinton machine when the nomination was “inevitable?”
October 30th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Alan, Obama has a moderate image. You’re confusing that with temperament, which would be more suggestive of his internal political belief structure. He’s been expertly packaged and delivered to win an election, and to get people such as you to believe that he can be a moderate.
The challenge to this, the big test, is if the Dems get a supermajority in Congress. My bet is that we’ll see two years of of a legislative “puppy mill” of left or left leaning goofiness.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Leftism in America is generally tempered by reality. For example, Barack Obama had enough smart people with PhD’s in finance to tell him that rolling back tax cuts on people making 250K or higher was not a good idea in a recession, and Obama appears to have heard them, despite all of Obama’s populist left-wing rhetoric claiming that tax cuts on rich people were causing the problem in the first place.
I don’t expect any significant change in free-trade agreements, or a “patriotic corporations list” or penalties for manufacturers that expand overseas. He can get away with going back on these promises because understanding the nuances of trade is way over the public’s heads generally.
I do expect the defense and intelligence budget to be dramatically reduced in order to attempt to reduce budget deficits while increasing entitlement spending, as Clinton did in the 90’s.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Jimmy, didn’t the cuts in intelligence at least in part lead to some serious security problems that we experienced in 2001?
October 30th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Exciled: maybe it’s a definition problem, but I wouldn’t say temperament is suggestive of someone’s political belief structure. It’s suggestive of someone’s mental and emotional process. In that regard, Obama strikes me as being moderate, in that he is not one to leap without looking or become easily agitated. I don’t think that’s just “image.”
Now, you can have a moderate temperament and right wing or left wing beliefs. And you can have moderate political beliefs and a fiery temperament. But temperament, in general, is not easy to hide or gloss over with a fancy campaign. It’s one of the few advantages of our REALLY long campaigns.
October 30th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Oh snap, I just dropped by to encourage someone here to plump Kerrey’s smart editorial, and you’re way ahead of me. Well done. I strongly agree with Kerrey. Too bad he can’t be swapped in for Biden. Or even swapped for the odious Kerry we’re stuck with here in MA.
Gerry, do you disagree with the notion that the Clintons dominated the moderate DLC wing of the democratic party and that Obama was therefore forced to run to Hillary’s left? If you don’t, why not?
And if you do agree, then how does his mere choice to run represent bucking the party? IMO, choosing to run even though you aren’t the favorite is not evidence of a maverick nature. It just shows that you’re ambitious. My best guess is that he ran this year assuming he probably wouldn’t win, but needed to plant the seeds for a future run. If Hillary had properly contested the caucus states instead of running her campaign as a coronation, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion, right?
Exiled, I agree that the big test is much as you state. But given that Alan has previously stated more than once that he’s agnostic on Obama and ready to jump ship if the big taxes for entitlements train leaves the station, l think that the “people like you” crack is undeserved.
I, like Alan, have repeatedly framed my opinion as stating that it’s possible that Obama will govern in a moderate bipartisan manner, but we just don’t know. There is reason for hope, but not faith. So we’ll have to see, and be prepared to bail.
Have you somehow missed all this?
October 30th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
How Obama governs will depend on factors, if the economy worsens in the next few months dramatically then expect him to govern as an activist president much like FDR did, with Government taking a more activist approach towards relief for americans. If on the other hand the economy imporves by the time he reaches office, then expect him to take a more centrist approach.
Also if the Dems end up with a clear mandate, 60 + seats in the senate, and a large victory for Obama then he’ll likely take a more liberal approach to governance than he would if they fall short of a full mandate.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Please Obama dont govern as a democrat. please make sure to give serious appreciation to all the policies and ideas of the same people who were in power for eight years and whose ideology and polices were the primary cause of most of the bad things that have gone on in the country. please do not follow through on your health care plan or economic plan or education plan or energy plan or plan for iraq because those things are opposed by the other party and you can never do them is a meaningfully “bi-partisan way”. also, please dont try and protect civil liberties by doing things like closing guantanamo or stopping the eavesdropping on american citizens without any warrants or judicial oversight. Also, make sure that you focus only on taxes and cutting them ensuring that the federal government has a massive deficit unless you cut every social program worthy or not because we can never cut defense spending. Oh and dont hold any of the people who got us into this mess responsible because that would just not be polite.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Maybe Avinash.
But on the other hand, don’t forget to notice that 60 is less thsan 67. In other words, fillibuster-proof is not veto-proof. If the dems get 60, that makes it far more likely they over-reach, and come up with policies that piss off moderates. Then, come 2012, it’s a lot easier for the people to change Presidents than to reformulate congress.
If the democrats raise taxes and increase entitlements, and the economy has not rebounded, Obama will get his clocked cleaned if he has acted as a rubber stamp.
If the dems get 60, Obama can get lots of cred by vetoing occasional bills in order to get small changes to decrease spending or to scale back big dreamy plans.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Yes. But don’t worry, Obama has assured us that Iran is a “tiny threat” and that Islamic terrorism can be thwarted by fighting poverty.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Great Site! I am a moderate trying to promote moderation, and it looks like you are like minded. I would hesitate to call Obama a moderate, but he is closer to center than the former moderate McCain. It is a shame how McCain prostituted himself to get the support of right wing extremistsm, and Sarah Palin represents the ignoramis branch of the Republican Party.
Keep on bloggin’!