Not Quite Over

By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in Barack, McCain, Polls

Bloomberg lays out the very difficult road ahead for John McCain if he hopes to win this election. Simply, no candidate has ever won the presidency after being this far down in the polls, this close to the election.

The plethora of polls with varying margins between the candidates makes it hard to know exactly how far behind McCain is but we can confidently assume he is behind as not a single poll shows him in the lead. Barring a major surprise, I’d suspect to see Barack Obama winning by no less than three percentage points and at least 300 electoral votes.

That said, polls are only a measure of mood. With one-in-seven voters saying they are still persuadable, it’s folly to assume this election is already in the bag for Obama. I’m sure most smart Obama supporters will be holding their breath until all the votes are counted.


This entry was posted on Friday, October 31st, 2008 and is filed under Barack, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “Not Quite Over”

  1. Avinash_Tyagi Says:

    Nah, once he won that greatest of Bellweathers, the Alan Stewart Carl vote I knew it was in the bag, lol :P

  2. mike mcEachran Says:

    I don’t know. McCain’s introduced a game changer…he’s promising to make Joe the Plumber part of his administration. If this doesn’t win him the election, nothing will…

  3. bunny fufu Says:

    One in seven? Nationally, sure, that might be a reasonable number. But the article is quoting numbers from a national poll. The personal stories of undecidedness from the article come from California, New York (2), New Jersey and Missouri. So the only vote to probably make a difference in the election is that singular vote from Missouri. It would be much more useful to see what the undecided population looks like in the battleground states. Or weight the undecided population based on how much money the campaigns are spending in that particular state.

    Not to gush over Nate Silver, but this is one reason his model stresses state polling over national polling.

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