Donklephant » Blog Archive » Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates

Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

Note that it’s more likely that Obama will win North Dakota than Florida. Pretty crazy.

My guess on Tuesday is that if voters are still undecided at this point they’ll break for McCain because they’re essentially okay with Bush’s 8 years and McCain would clearly be an extension of that.

So…what does that mean as far as the swing states go?

Any state where Obama is below 50% is up certainly up for grabs. That means all of the toss-ups in yellow and Ohio. So my gut tells me McCain will eek out wins in all of these states.

What do you think?

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 2nd, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Responses to “Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates”

Trescml Says:
November 2nd, 2008 at 11:21 am
Obama will win a couple of the toss-ups but will lose Ohio. He will still win enough EVs to win.
Avinash_Tyagi Says:
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I think you’re overselling McCain’s chances, since it would take nearly 100% undecideds , especially in Ohio, for McCain to break past Obama, that is extremely unlikely, its possible, but it would be a first, undecideds will likely break 3 to 2 in favor of McCain, at most 2 to 1, and once you factor in third party voters, cellphone only voters and increased turnout i’d say that Obama gets most of those states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina are very likely Obama, Montana and Georgia will be likely McCain, unless GOTV really sends a lot to the polls, and the others are coin flips.

I think you’re overselling some hidden Bradley effect, when in fact most elections have undecided voters right up to the end, and they don’t break for one person entirely, usually they break more in favor of one, but not overwhelmingly so

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

NOTE TO COMMENTERS:

You must ALWAYS fill in the two word CAPTCHA below to submit a comment. And if this is your first time commenting on Donklephant, it will be held in a moderation queue for approval. Please don't resubmit the same comment a couple times. We'll get around to moderating it soon enough.

Also, sometimes even if you've commented before, it may still get placed in a moderation queue and/or sent to the spam folder. If it's just in moderation queue, it'll be published, but it may be deleted if it lands in the spam folder. My apologies if this happens but there are some keywords that push it into the spam folder.

One last note, we will not tolerate comments that disparage people based on age, sex, handicap, race, color, sexual orientation, national origin or ancestry. We reserve the right to delete these comments and ban the people who make them from ever commenting here again.

Thanks for understanding and have a pleasurable commenting experience.