I strongly expect major Republican gains in 2010 and 2012. Virginia, due in 2009, has elected a governor opposite to the President’s Party since 1976. Pennsylvania has elected against the President since 1934, except for 1982.

For a truly awsome treatment, with many graphs, on American and foreign party turnovers, check out Yahoo group “Politicometrics.”

?Indeed. For fear is the most reasonable response to the recognition of what politics is. GOP 2010!” Perfect. But I am afraid that a majority change in 2010 is very unlikely. We will be “enjoying” single party rule for at least four years….

I’m not taking current data and just saying that it must fit my worldview, i’m taking past events and seeing what issues occured back then and then seeing if today’s events have similarities. We have economic turmoil, we have a polairizing war, we have long run demographic shifts favoring the Democrats, we have the necessary ingredients for a long term shift. No shift is permanent, because eventually the political landscape will shift, but these events can create changes which last decades.

Could I be wrong, sure, the Dems could screw up big and the GOP could be seen as riding in and cleaning up the mess, but so far I don’t see sings of that, Obama seemsto be playing it smart, learning from both the mistakes and successes of the past and surrounding himself with a smart and skilled team.

“…the smartest man alive” – david

@david
No…no… no… not at all [blushing]. I certainly do no see myself as the smartest man alive, but modestly see myself as one of the many grouped in that top one half of one percent.

Let’s use your metaphor. Your premise: We are riding an Obama/Democratic tsumami of changing cultural/political forces carrying US politics on a shift to the left that will permanently alter the US political landscape into great swaths of new progressive/liberal/socialist (pick your label) beachfront property as it crashes ashore in 2010 and 2012. My premise: We are seeing the ebb and flow of normal political tides in American politics. You see a 52% liberal “glass half full” tidal wave. I see a 48% “glass half empty” conservative low tide.

I think you are really overreaching as you project the 2008 data into the future and ignore the recent past. You ignore that part of your 52% “tidal wave” that was comprised of Obamacans and independents who were not really voting for Obama and his tired old liberal Democratic bromides, but voting against Bush and the Republicans big spending, big government, interventionist, government in your bedroom, anti-conservative anti-freedom record. We have one of them right here. If you don’t believe me, Ask Obama voter ASC if he has a fire in his belly to remove the last vestiges of conservatism from the Federal Government in 2010 and 2012. He is representative of at least 1-3% of the 52% Obama “tidal wave”. The very same percentage I was hectoring to vote for divided government (alas – they did not listen to me).

I expect your “tidal wave” will last about as long as Karl Rove and Tom Delay’s “permanent majority”. I don’t know if you, me or even Donklephant will be around to check back in 2010 and 2012, but if so – we’ll find out and compare notes then.

Do you have a source to back your Lieberman claim?

Lieberman has consistently voted with the Democrats on various social and fiscal issues.

Your talk seems really familiar…who was the last person to talk about kicking the other party out of power and establishing a permanent majority? I think his name started with a K and ended with K and ends with arl Rove. And I think that was in 2004, when he talked about how the evangelicals were going to put Democrats across the country out of office.

Btw, if you didn’t know the so called “youngsters” didn’t turn out in the numbers Obama had hoped for

On the other hand many of the GOP cantidates are in blue states or states tredning Blue, where Obama did very well, so all those Obama supporters are going to be ready to push them out in 2010 and 2012, especially in 2012, when Obama is back on the ticket, all those African americans and youngsters will be a wave that slams the remaining GOP memebers out of office.

Actually give me some reason why the country won’t remain in favor of the dems, and actually back it up with evidence, not just that you think it won’t work or that the dems will overreach I want some proof that it wont work and that it will be seen as overreach, otherwise its just predicition.

You are also confusing advocacy for predictions. There is a difference.

Judging by how your 2008 predictions came out, I think it bodes well for the democrats having dominance well into the 2020’s