International Conditions May Be Ripe for Improvement
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in Barack, Bush, Foreign Policy, The World
Writing for The Atlantic, Robert D. Kaplan thinks Barack Obama has made a good decision by choosing political rival Hillary Clinton to be Secretary of State. But Kaplan foresees success for Obama not just because of the team he’s assembled but because international conditions are favorable for success:
[T]he real reason that Obama and Clinton might enjoy success I something that goes barely mentioned in the media. Obama and Clinton are buying into a bottomed-out market vis-a-vis America’s position in the world. It is as if they will be buying stock after the market has crashed, and just at the point when a number of factors are already set in motion for a recovery. For President George W. Bush did not just damage America’s position in the world, he has also, over the past two years, quietly repositioned himself as a realist in foreign policy, and that, coupled with a bold new strategy in Iraq, known as the “surge,†has poised America for a diplomatic rebound, which the next administration will get the credit for carrying out.
Kaplan is right that Bush has quietly moved away from the ideological swamp of neo-conservative foreign policy and has moved towards a more realist approach. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is an excellent example of this new pragmatism. That’s why Obama is keeping Gates on board.
Kaplan points out a number of ways our advisories and tentative allies are being softened up and could be ready to have a more productive relationship with the U.S. From successful background maneuvers by Bush to plummeting oil prices to Obama’s own soaring popularity, conditions are favorable for a rebound in American prestige and positive influence.
Nevertheless, we can’t assume things will get better just because conditions have fallen to such a low point. The world is still a huge mess with countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela positioning themselves as anti-American regional powers while China looks ready to become a global power. And that’s leaving out the problems surrounding Pakistan, North Korea, The Sudan, Syria and elsewhere.
Foreign policy is often the art of choosing the least bad choice, of reaching for the kinda bad to prevent the really bad. It’d be foolish to assume Obama can heal all the ills. We’ll be fortunate if he can just stitch up the worst of the bleeders.
But Kaplan is right that the new administration is starting with the bar set pretty low. I think most people will consider Obama’s foreign policy a failure if he doesn’t noticeably improve matters.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 26th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Bush, Foreign Policy, The World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:27 am
The fact That Obama doesn’t have to deal with a failed state in Iraq reun by terrorists, as John Kerry would have in 2004, and that he doesnt have to deal with the nightmare of Saddam Hussein surely is favorable to him. However, Iran now has enough nuclear material to make a bomb, Hezbollah and has rearmed in Lebenon.
Whether or not you believe the thousands of deaths in Iraq consitute a failure in and of itself, going forward, The removal of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent victory over the insurgency has made the world safer for President Obama to inherit.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
So, just so I have this right, the economic and international mess of the last 8 years was Clinton’s fault, and any success we see in the next 4-8 years will be due to the misunderstood but ultimately great President George W. Bush.
OK….got it.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
If Obama can get Iran to stop enriching Uranium and hand over what they already produced, then he deserves a Nobel Prize or something. Its a lot easier to do that when Iran is not in an arms race with its arch-nemesis, Saddam Hussein next door.
November 26th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Except that Iran and everyone else except the US and a few confused (OK, lied to) allies knew that Iraq didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction so they weren’t in an arms race with them.
And, a question if you don’t mind…how do you know Iran is enriching Uranium and has already produced some to hand over ?
Oh yes, the Bush administration,which is NEVER wrong, told you.
OK….got it.