Poll: Stimulus Support Strong In Red Districts
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Democrats, Polls, RepublicansThe usual caveats apply here (just one poll, etc.), but Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is seeing some pretty disturbing trends for Republicans come 2010 if they don’t get behind this stimulus package.
A survey of 1,200 voters in 40 traditionally Republican congressional districts now held by Democrats Greenberg’s firm conducted between Jan. 14 to 19 shows Obama’s post-election honeymoon reaching a rapturous stage, with 44 percent of voters strongly supporting his policies.A full 64 percent favor his economic plan, compared to 27 percent against. And precisely that same proportion favors the stimulus in 13 states that are expected to have competitive Senate races in 2010: Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Colorado, Ohio, Kansas, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Illinois.
Let’s look at some of those states for moment: Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana, Kansas and North Dakota. Not exactly traditionally blue states there, although NC did go for Obama. If support for this stimulus is in the mid 60s in these states, there’s a good reason and it’s not because people have suddenly embraced Keynesian economic theory.
And to my previous point about this not being good for the GOP come 2010…
Greenberg says an incumbent’s support for the economic plan appears to make voters more likely to reelect the lawmaker — particularly good news for the 20 or so Democrats who in November captured districts that former President Bush carried in 2004. He said one-third of Republicans and two-thirds of independents are leaning with Obama’s general goals on the recovery.
Now, Republicans may think their seats are safe because they’re in traditionally conservative districts, but I honestly don’t think they appreciate the current political climate. Something changed after the financial collapse and voters are much more willing to give the government a shot at fixing things.
Also, if you want to know the mood of the country about a certain piece of legislation, look to the independents. Because they almost always represent the average level of support. And Greenberg is finding that 67% favor the stimulus.
Note to GOP: Don’t listen to Rush Limbaugh. It’s bad for your electoral health.
This entry was posted on Sunday, February 1st, 2009 and is filed under Democrats, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
February 1st, 2009 at 6:37 am
I think it’s too early to tell what the effect on the 2010 election will be. What the polls say now doesn’t matter much. What does matter is what people think in 2010. Whether this is good or bad for Republicans depends on whether people think the stimulus worked.
However, people who support the stimulus now are probably more likely to be convinced later that it is working, and vice versa, so yeah, it’s a big risk.
February 1st, 2009 at 8:21 am
See, this is interesting to me. The economy sucks, and the government has done a masterful job of amplifying the real worries into hysteria. To base a decision like this on polling numbers would epitomize everything that is wrong about our current political climate. I doubt if the pollster asked “Have you read the stimulus package?” or “Do you know that it includes x, y, and z?” It basically amounts to a) Are you afraid and b) do you want the government to do something about it. Umm…yes and yes? But this particular bill is going to do more harm than good because of a lack of true, lasting stimulus and a massive run-up of federal debt.
A bad idea is a bad idea, no matter how many people support it (would love to see the actual questions in the poll; sensing push-poll potential here).
February 1st, 2009 at 8:22 am
I love that little caveat “now held by democrats.” Not exactly “red” districts are they?
First, I suspect what’s happening is that roughly the same proportion of voters in those districts who support the stimulus, also voted for Obama. Their support is a sort of self affirmation of the choice they made last November.
Second, whatever level of support the stimulus has, I can guarantee that at least that high or higher a number has no idea what’s in it. I’m no expert on Keynesian economics, but I think even Keynes would laugh at the idea that this is an “economic stimulus.”
My prediction? That money will disappear just like the first half of the TARP funds with no economic growth. In 2010, after the spending orgy is over and the voters get sick of all the “crisis” talk, Republicans will be able to sit back and say they took no part in it; therefore reclaiming the label of fiscal responsibility that they so successfully destroyed over the last eight years.
By the way, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Rush and John McCain aren’t exactly ideological soul mates. How did he do in November? Whether you agree with him or not, I’m glad there’s a voice out there questioning how this government is going to spend a trillion dollars in the blink of an eye…
February 1st, 2009 at 11:06 am
…that for voters in 2010, a large factor will be who is perceived to have tried, at least, to take action. While not the best pitchline and hardly inspiring (“As you can see in chart 14A, here…”), Democrats in 2010 who can spin “no economic growth” as “stabilization of the markets” are one up on Republicans who, Dems would say, “left average Americans to fend for themselves while advocating tax breaks for” insert corporate boogieman here, say, oil companies.
Republican claims of fiscal concern ring hollow unless delivered by someone who wasn’t around when they were in the majority; this pool of Congressmen (R) is pretty close to non-existent. With the rash of Republican retirements and the 2010 census, and subsequent redistricting, this pool is very likely to shrink even further.
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:01 am
Like the others here, I don’t think a poll taken now will mean anything by 2010. It will all depend on the conditions in 2010, as in, “Has the Obama Administration’s policies helped or hurt your personal situation.” And for a majority at that time, it will depend more on perceptions than actual conditions, just like it is perceptions that Obama’s plan will be helpful (w/o knowing what was in it) drove this poll.
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:07 am
Note to I suspect: The redistricting you refer to will not happen until after the 2010 elections. So 2010 will be the GOP’s last best chance to rebuild momentum. If they fial then, their status as a regional party only will be set in stone for quite awhile, barring some major political shock.
The Republicans know this, so they will be pulling out all the stops between now & then.
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:50 am
we need to figure out what we can make that the rest of the world would want to buy. our economy is bad i feel as if i am on Tax Payer Life Support