Polls Show Obama Losing Independents
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Independents, Obama, Polls
He’s not below 50% yet, but between these numbers and Gallup’s, the trend is clear.
Here’s more…
President Barack Obama’s first five months in office have seen his job approval remain stable overall – currently at a politically healthy 57 – 33 percent, but his disapproval has risen 8 – 10 points among several key demographic groups even as the national mood has improved somewhat in recent months, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.Approval among independent voters is 52 – 37 percent, compared to 57 – 30 percent in a June 4 survey [...]. The survey of more than 3,000 voters also finds that voters feel 32 – 30 percent that things in the nation have gotten better since President Obama was inaugurated. Independent voters say 32 – 27 percent that things are worse, with 40 percent saying things are the same.
Also, Rasmussen shows similar overall approval numbers, which usually fall in line with the number of independents who give the President a thumbs up…
Overall, 53% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.
So what does this mean from a political survival standpoint…
First, the White House should be on notice, especially when it comes to the upcoming health care fight. In a post-Bush world, Obama can’t afford to play partisan games and shut the other side out of the debate. He has to be inclusive and at least think about developing a plan that appeases moderate members on both sides. That’s nearly impossible in the House since most of those Republicans are from very red districts, but in the Senate he can afford to lose folks like Snowe, Grassley, Collins and even the newly Democratic Specter. He needs those folks on board and publicly supporting him, otherwise independents will continue to leave.
Second, he has to reign in Pelosi. She has been running the show in the House and her partisan ways have been spread a lot of ill will. I’m not exactly sure why she doesn’t realize that her President promised bi-partisanship, but she better soon or risk facing a big turnaround in 2010. Now, this happened to Clinton and he was still a two termer, but Obama is becoming a more polarizing figure and it could hurt him more for the 2012 run.
Last, he should be very careful with this new supermajority and only use it when the public’s approval is firmly behind him. Otherwise, Independents will simply label Obama the liberal Bush and that’s a meme that will stick.
So those are my thoughts. What are yours?
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July 2nd, 2009 at 4:17 pm
The Independent’s mantra: “What have you done for me lately?”. They’re important to guage political temperature, but far-sighted? I don’t know.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:43 pm
I imagine Obama will be down to about a 52% overall approval number in seven or eight months. Then the economy will start back up, he’ll have a nice list of legislative accomplishments, and he’ll be looking at high 50′s or better going into mid-terms.
Of course I get that from my magic eightball.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:55 pm
She realizes that such promises were just talk. Obama has never, so far as I can tell, understoon bipartisanship as meaning anything more than “the other side can come along if they agree with me.”
July 2nd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Why is bipartisanship so important???? What happened to NONpartisanship, or in other words: what is best for the country regardless of ideology.
The public supports a public option and the republicans don’t. So what is more important: pleasing republicans or the public?
Personally I like Pelosi (probably in the minority there), and I think she’s a good speaker (not a tyrant like Gingrich et al) and while she is a bit more liberal than the middle, she understands the dire situation we are in. Grassley has stated that bipartisanship=no public option. Is that something that we want Justin? Why try to find bipartisanship when the other side says no to anything that isn’t part of their talking points/platform. Makes no sense. The public granted the dems a supermajority so they should push through their platform. If it fails then people will vote them out. This is the joy of a democratic republic. I think in the end we will have a public option without republican votes and the dems will retain their majorities in 2010 unless the republicans get on board with the rest of the country- especially the younger voters who will be running this country in no time at all.
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:32 pm
I have to strongly disagree with the ideal of bipartisanship when the opposition party don’t want to play ball with the President especially when they are against the public option health care that most American want. It may make some since when it comes to the deficit & being fiscal responsible but when our National Health Care is in ruins 47 million Americans without it is very Un-American and the Republican party continues to play with the lives of the American people. This is why he was votes by the American people.
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Agree. Bipartisanship is only good when there’s a bi-side to go with it. The definition of cooperation is “joint operation or action” . Without the “joint” the definition is invalid.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Obama is getting over played like a new hit single. It won’t be long before his polls slide below 50%. I also believe the economy is far from recovering. His stimulus bill, and the printing of money is not an investment into America’s future. It is the beginning of an inflationary period. This will cause the housing market and the auto market to remain in negative territory for the foreseeable future. I know Democrats don’t want to believe this because they really want Obama to succeed. Trust me, I do too. I have a lot of money lost over the past 20 months that I’d like to recover. However, the decisions he is making, partisan or bi-partisan, are not favorable to bring the economy around. His focus is to build power in the unions, government and ethnic communities. Oh…by the way Jacob. You too will grow old some day and I’d suggest you think about what you ask for. Government run healthcare is fine when you are in your 20′s and 30′s. When you get to your 60′s and 70′s you’ll wish you had made different decisions.
July 2nd, 2009 at 11:43 pm
“Polls Show Obama Losing Independents”
To whom?
July 3rd, 2009 at 9:44 am
Bipartisanship is like dancing: it takes two. This means that if and when we don’t get bipartisan action, each side can spin this as the other side’s fault for being unreasonable. Which you folks seem to have down a swell job of proving.
In fact, it’s BOTH sides fault, because neither will budge.
I don’t think the economy is going to bounce back imminently. I think that the just-better-than-dead-cat bounce in the stock market is out of steam, and there isn’t enough good economic news. I think many of the gov’t mitigation measures undertaken, while useful from the perspective of soothing the pain of dislocated workers and preventing an even worse economic nosedive, will also delay any eventual recovery. If you shallow out any dive, you also shallow out the rise. That’s God’s rule, not mine.
America bought itself an artificially high standard of living on borrowed money. The cathedral of unsustainable practices has collapsed. and now what’s left is a big hole of debt we all dug.
The only way out of the hole is straight up the hill. Produce more, spend less.
July 3rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
” Oh…by the way Jacob. You too will grow old some day and I’d suggest you think about what you ask for. Government run healthcare is fine when you are in your 20’s and 30’s. When you get to your 60’s and 70’s you’ll wish you had made different decisions.”
How old are you? Over 65? Did you turn down Medicare?
I’m 11 years from Medicare, and unemployed. When you conservatives get around to solving my problems, then you will earn your way back into power, since you caused my problems by opposing heath care reform 16 years ago and tanking the economy with huge deficits caused by tax cuts for the rich and two wars on borrowed money.
Your one-note is getting very old to those of us barely hanging on with no end in sight.
Of course, since all of you believe in Galt, my being laid off in my fifties is my fault. Please, you lost because your ideology is empty. Get over it.
July 3rd, 2009 at 5:47 pm
I do believe in health care reform. I don’t believe in a social health care because it doesn’t work. I do believe that we should have Tort reform so medical costs can deflate in price. I do believe we could have a graduated health care billing system so I pay more in my “earning” years and less as I approach retirement. I think we should be able to shop around for the best policies that fit our needs and we should be able to do this outside the state we live in. I don’t think we should provide health care to illegal aliens. All these ideas save us as consumers of medical needs money…I don’t think you can argue these points.
Conservative ideology is not empty. Big Government is. Taxing the “rich” is not the answer…it’s not their fault others don’t earn more. We shouldn’t punish people who are ambitious and have mastered their talents in ways most of us can’t.
July 3rd, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Short take: The honeymoon is over.
“Bipartisanship” does NOT mean “My way or the highway,” but that’s the way the admin and current Congress have defined it.
Conservative ideology is not empty
It’s not empty, it’s muddled, especially by so-cons who claim that anyone who is not a so-con is not a “real” conservative. The net result of which has been Little Tent shrinkage of the GOP and swelling of the ranks of indies as fiscons and libertarians and Mainstreeters have left in droves, sick of the religious right.
August 17th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
[...] ability to alienate moderates / independents, based on recent polling (Rasmussen, NY Post, Donklephant, Scared Monkeys). It’s not impossible that the GOP could stage a complete and total [...]