I do not believe there is any case to be made for a statistical correlation between market direction and political parties in power that will stand up to rigorous mathematical scrutiny over the long term. However, in the short term, if investors believe that divided government is good for markets, then that expectation can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. That may be what we are seeing in the market now in anticipation of the November results. Apparently the investor class really believes that divided government is good for the market, and we are going to get it in the election.
Archive for October, 2010
With another decisive and bitter election coming up, it looks like further gridlock as Americans split further apart politically, socially and economically. Names and labels are replacing concepts and ideas that once brought people to the table. Not to be too romantic or idealistic but what ever happen to the concept of What you can [...]
I did watch the entire debate in stunned, silent horror. Some saw a clear-cut outcome. For me, it was all I could do to write this open letter of sincere condolence to our unfortunate fellow citizens facing this decision in Nevada.
No mystery. I’ve been VERY busy. And I didn’t want to keep posting about being very busy. So I figured, upon returning, I’d just let everybody know what’s going on. Between work and other projects (film and multimedia), my time has been completely consumed. My apologies if it seemed like I don’t care about the [...]
Will last night’s debate swing the race? I didn’t see it, but I’m hearing that Angle looked sort of like a Senator and that may be all she needs to defeat the wildly unpopular Senate majority leader. Here’s the trending from Pollster… Will Reid squeak this one out? Will Angle be the Tea Party’s biggest [...]
We know why NMA selected her for this treatment. It is because watching our media, NMA determined she must be a big story. The real question – Why is she such a big story here? Why is she getting so much new and old media attention that she pops up on the NMA meme radarscope?
Normally sports fall under another category but this time I thought it was interesting how social media is changing the ways we see these figures in the media. The question I posed will it change their behaviors? News Link… Tweet
What better day and time to update our “10 in 10? election prognostications? Last we checked in – Nate Silver (our polling analyst of choice) showed that 9 of the 10 seats most likely to change parties were all held by Democrats and he was forecasting a net 6-7 seat Republican gain in the Senate. One month later, with less than a month to go – 10 of the top 10 seats most likely to change parties are all held by Democrats and Nate is forecasting an 8-9 seat gain by the GOP. So – despite the nomination of a GOP clown candidate in Delaware (virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory in that state) the odds of a GOP Senate takeover continue to improve.