Nate Silver: 2012 Shaping Up To Be Like 2008

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Obama, Polls, Romney

The latest polls that came out on Wednesday were literally some of the worst of Romney’s campaign.

Nate Silver puts it bluntly…

Unlike many recent days, when Mr. Obama’s national polls were slightly less euphoric than his swing state surveys, Wednesday’s national polls seemed to support the notion that Mr. Obama has a clear lead in the race. The Gallup national tracking poll gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters, close to his high mark on the year in that survey. The online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos gave him a six-point lead among likely voters. Another online tracking poll, from the RAND Corporation, put Mr. Obama’s lead at roughly seven and a half percentage points, his largest of the year in that poll. And a national poll for Bloomberg produced by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has a strong track record, put Mr. Obama six points ahead.

Want to see something more astonishing? Silver’s model now has Obama with a 97.8% chance of winning the election, if it were held today. That number drops to 81.9% when projecting out to November 6.


Either way…it’s an ass whopping.

Sure, Obama won’t likely see the 365 electoral votes he won in 2008, but getting over 300 and beating your opponent by over 100 would be seen as a pretty significant mandate.

It’s pretty clear at this point that the “47% comments” are destroying Romney’s chances of even coming close to beating the incumbent. Couple that with the reception of Bill Clinton’s speech at the convention and the growing unpopularity with Republicans among women and minorities…and this thing looks locked up.

The only thing that can really sidetrack Obama at this point is a hidden tape of his own. Because even if he doesn’t do as well as Romney at the debates…it doesn’t matter. Americans know Obama, they know his policies and, according to the polling, the more they hear from him…the more they like him. Plus, the Obama team has been playing the expectations game and underselling his chances for winning…while the Romney team has been saying that Mitt will beat Obama. Pretty bold strategy…and when I say bold…I mean not likely to work.

To close, I’ll leave you with state-by-state poll numbers that show just how bad the situation is for Mitt. I just don’t see how he can recover.


This entry was posted on Thursday, September 27th, 2012 and is filed under Barack, Obama, Polls, Romney. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

15 Responses to “Nate Silver: 2012 Shaping Up To Be Like 2008”

  1. cranky critter Says:

    Yeah, I pretty much came to the same conclusion as Silver. The 47% comments seem to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. The combined weight of Romney’s background, record, demeanor, and Biden-isms just make it so easy to conclude that he has very little sense of connection with regular folks.

    The race will inevitably tighten some down the stretch, but I think this image has been cast. Stick a fork in him.

  2. Calmoderate Says:

    Your observation about Obama maybe having a mandate merits a comment. I can’t find it again online (sorry), but a study from a couple of months ago looked at presidents who enjoyed mandates after elections in the 1900′s. In that study a mandate was defined as support (reluctant, of course) by the congressional opposition to the new president’s policies. There were only 2 presidents who experienced a true mandate by that criteria, Johnson and one other. Those 2 presidents were able to get significant legislation through congress. In addition to enjoying a true mandate, Johnson was a legislative genius and was unusually effective at what he wanted to do.

    In the present election, Obama could get 100% of the electoral college and not experience a mandate. The current crop of republicans in congress will not concede anything to the guy, regardless of any real or perceived mandate. Obama arguably should have received a mandate after his 2008 election. In reality, congress is key, not what voters want and not what the electoral college does or doesn’t do.

  3. Tillyosu Says:

    The only thing that can really sidetrack Obama at this point is a hidden tape of his own.

    Well, here you go.

    Now let’s all sit back and wait for Justin’s “this is no big deal” post.

  4. cranky critter Says:

    @Til
    Nah, let’s sit back and see whether this tape upsets people like Romney’s obviously has. He tanked pretty hard after the 47 remarks.

    I’m so over the notion of dueling anecdotes and dueling gotchas.

    My own sense of this tape is that it will be extremely upsetting to people who would never vote for Obama anyway. But the polls will tell us how others react.

    Others can enjoy the argument about whether this tape should change the minds of voters in the middle. I find that argument wholly fruitless. Everyone uses a diffeent scoring system. So I’m just going to wait and see how others judge.

    @Cal
    I also find the “is it a mandate or not” discussion wholly fruitless. It always leads to claims about how the losers “should” behave. We know how losing parties generally behave. They stick to their guns. Book it.

  5. Tillyosu Says:

    But to the main point of the post:

    Frankly I think it’s kind of foolish to consider this election a done deal on the 3rd day of October. I also think it’s foolish to think that this election is going to be decided by some off-the-cuff comment that Romney made to some donors 6 months ago, or by whatever is in his tax returns. We still have over 8% unemployment, we’re $5 TRILLION deeper in debt, the Middle East is in flames, and a potential cover up of the Libya attack is beginning to envelope the administration. These are fundamental problems, and if the electorate makes its decision based on trivialities like the 47% comment then God help us.

    But back to the numbers. Jay Cost has a great piece over at the Weekly Standard pushing back against this argument. I’ll let you guys read it yourself but some of the key takeaways:

    -An average of 14% of voters made up their minds the week before the election.
    -An average of 13% made up their minds in October.
    -Going back to 1968 (excluding 2 elections), there has been an average of a 9-10 point swing from the October polls to the final results. Mostly favoring the underdog.

    Recognizing this, the Romney campaign has been holding off on spending their vast war chest. It seems his strategy has been to send voters to the polls with his arguments fresh in their minds, while Obama’s has been to define Romney early on and cripple him as a viable option before he has a chance to make his argument. We’ll see which strategy works, but I think this race is far from over.

  6. RIch Horton Says:

    Sorry, I don’t see this. In 2008 you had this little thing called a collapsing economy that was falling straight on the incumbent parties head. There is no equivalent dynamic here. In fact EVERY economic based election prediction model is predicting a Romney victory. The idea that Obama will have a stroll in the ark is wishful thinking. HE may very well win, but there are strong economic headwinds, and they will have an impact before this race is over.

    They always do.

  7. TerenceC Says:

    The economy is getting better. It is a model indicating less than 1.5% growth though, which is unfortunate. It is improving every month however, and will continue to improve through the second quarter at current projections. Imagine how much better everyone would be doing if our government actually did pass the jobs bill and could have gotten across party lines to doing something truly amazing – compromise for the good of the people.

  8. cranky critter Says:

    I’m not sure how much I trust self-reports of when people made up their minds. I’m thinking of the 2/3 of self-reporting independents who some always ends up voting for the same party every time even though tehy imagine themselves to be weighing things carefully. Just sayin’.

  9. EndthePain Says:

    47 percent of the country do not pay taxes. Of that 47 percent. Im just guessing but I would say that 15-20 percent of those would LOVE to pay taxes.

    If only…….

    If only they had a job. If only they had more income.

    It is a proven statistic that about 1.5 million more people have become disabled via social security disability. Meaning that the unemployment is over 9 percent because these have left the unemployment rolls.

    It is a proven fact that well over a million people have gone back to school and are simply racking up student loans…..

    Thus raising the unemployment to over 11 percent.

    This president is a disaster. This democratic controled senate which refuses to do anything….Nothing….zilch…..is a disaster.

    Not even bring up for debate anything the house has passed.

    Our economy is smoke and mirrors….

    99 weeks of unemployment benefits…..doubled…..why not LOVE the Democrats….why not….they just giving money away……its FREEEEEE!!

    The GOP are racists because they want people to pay taxes. They want people to work.

    The GOP is heartless because they want to pay our bills rather then borrow money from China until there is nothing left to borrow.

    The GOP is heartless because if you doubled TAXES on the rich it would only bring in another 900 billion dollars in revenue leaving us with still 400-500 billion dollars in revenue shortfall(and do NOTHING for SS)….and of course we know that doubling the taxes on the rich would decimate the economy.

    The GOP is heartless because Social security is going broke and they want to fix it……but that requires guts…….

    In short I fail to fathom why there is even a democratic party anymore…..Why not just change the name to the Communist Party of America and be done with it.

    Our schools have done a great job….my 22 year old daughter once told me that she had heard…….”That communism was sorta bad.”

    I asked her what she knew about communism and the answer was a blank stare….She graduated with a 3.6 gpa from High school and spent 2 years in a junior college.

    The communists have done well. We simply need for the real democrats….your daddies democrats…those god loving, flag waving, Capitalism endorsing democrats to join with the GOP and get rid of all these progressive communists….

    and then perhaps we can get people back to work and get the country rolling again…

    Or not………Thats what November will tell us. Just how far gone are the morons that our school system is turning out……

    Just how far gone are they? This election will tell us.

    I predict that Obama will lose on the order of just how badly Jimmy Carter ultimately lost to Reagan…..In a landslide.

    Expect 3 more point swing when Ryan finishes with Biden this week.

  10. TerenceC Says:

    Interesting post. If only your facts were correct and not “sound bited from” from right wing media, you might have even made a rambling point. I had a vision that your daughter would say “when I asked my Dad if communism was bad he just gave me a blank stare as he attempted to describe socio-economic politics without hurting himself”.

    Blame BO all you want, being a target is part of his job description. Please be sure to take a close look at your own Congressmans voting record though. Determine if he/she is voting on bills that are responsible to the larger majority of Americans who just want to make it through the day like everyone else, or if there is a large Global National who will benefit more.

    D’s and R’s love to make alot of noise because that’s what gets reported, but as I have said many time on this blog. “Pay attention to the monkey, not the organ grinder”. Your disappointment with your government is justified to some extent however, focusing it all on one guy or one party is alittle crazy frankly. Just because someone wears an R or a D for party affiliation doesn’t make them right or wrong – their voting record does.

    Remember – the ultra rich in this society have been getting a free ride nearly – for almost 30 years. For everyone of them there are 60,000 Americans like you and me always being asked to pay alittle more, always being asked to suck it up, always being told that someday you could be rich too. Really!

    You should have told your daughter that societies who allow rich and powerful individuals to consistently take far more than they give to society will eventually see that society collapse under its own weight. And just because someone can do something doesn’t mean they should. As Americans we are all in the stew pot together. Many of us refuse to realize that, and think siding with D’s or R’s without question will make a difference. Right now we are left with choosing between 1 of the lesser evils – it’s unfortunate but that’s the way it is.

    In politics do your homework. Study the issues. Get involved at the local level – nothing elaborate just go to a party meeting. If you don’t, then you are doing exactly what “they” want you to do which is “nothing” surrounded by unfocused anger and a wreath of the Political Industrial Complex and it’s media directing your emotions. That’s how they keep winning and we keep losing.

  11. EndthePain Says:

    FACTS:

    Drawn from Barak Obama’s OWN budget submitted to congress in 2011. This is BO’s website…His budget….His numbers.

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/

    Click on Budget then summary tables.

    These are Barak Obama’s OWN NUMBERS…his. No one is making this up unless its him..

    His numbers….

    His projections.

    His analysis.

    To wit…..Income taxes collected 2012….is 1, 102 trillion dollars.

    Now if we add the 4 percent more that the democrats want to make the rich pay…you know back to the Clinton era…….then all will be right with the world.

    UH….

    4 percent of 1 trillion is only 40 billion dollars.

    Obama’s own projections………..????

    1.127 trillion dollars….

    Do the math…..

    1.127-.040………sorta looks like about a trillion short.

    Oh and thats not all.

    SSI Shortfall is……………138 billion dollars….OBAMA’s numbers.

    Medicare shortfall is…….48 billion dollars…..Obama’s numbers….not the GOP’s.

    I got it….lets tax the Rich 50 percent….thats 14 more percent….nope that wont do it.

    how about 60 percent….nope

    70 percent? getting close…….

    Yeah I love the class warfare….all our problems are the rich.

    Im not rich. Im not even close to being rich. We pay a few thousand buks a year for taxes but even I know that taxing the rich to death will not solve the problems these morons have cast upon us.

    Obama’s numbers…..not mine…not the gop…not made up.

    and now we want to add obama care to a nation who already cant pay their own bills and there simply aint enough income to tax to make up for all this.

    A 2.6 trillion dollar per year industry. Taxing everyone everything they make might….just might pay the bill

    At least this year…….and that my friend is pretty much what they did in the USSR.

  12. EndthePain Says:

    TerenceC

    You should do your homework. You sound just like one of those bonafide commie left wing progressives….

    Its the rich…always the rich.

    You know just like Lenin used to proclaim when he brought down Russia with his revolution.

    Revolutionary Social-Democracy has always included the struggle for reforms as part of its activities. But it utilises “economic” agitation for the purpose of presenting to the government, not only demands for all sorts of measures, but also (and primarily) the demand that it cease to be an autocratic government….Vladimir Lenin in “What is to be done”

    Just what is Autocratic?

    1. of or relating to an absolute and unrestricted ruler
    2. domineering or dictatorial

    And what happened when the masses took over in Russia? What form of government was established? Why that would be Autocratic of course….because the government always knows whats best for the people…….Its always the way of those who would have power.

    In the beginning we had to teach the workers the ABC, both in the literal and in the figurative senses. Now the standard of political literacy has risen so gigantically that we can and should concentrate all our efforts on the more direct Social-Democratic objectives aimed at giving an organised direction to the revolutionary stream….Lenin “One step forward, two steps back”

    Sounds just like your advice to me. I bet you can quote the communist manifesto as well. I can…Ive read it.

    I am informed and I have actually traveled in the former USSR when it was still communist. I have a pretty good idea what Im talking about.

    you sir seem to be either a professional agitator or ill informed as you bend over backwards trying to make the rich pay. But we both know that its not about the rich….its about agitation………

    As Lenin wrote:

    This struggle must be organised, according to “all the rules of the art”, by people who are professionally engaged in revolutionary activity. The fact that the masses are spontaneously being drawn into the movement does not make the organisation of this struggle less necessary. On the contrary, it makes it more necessary.

  13. EndthePain Says:

    Incidently I might add.

    For all of you who think that the Democrats are going to cure all that ails you. The presidents budget which was not even brought up for a vote and the ONE budget that was actually voted on received ZERO votes….not even a vote from a democrat.

    These budget projections are always based upon ROSEY….rose colored glasses….everything is just great with the world if we do things the way I want to do………..Every president does this….left right and communist.

    These are rosey projections.

    If you look at the projections of OBAMA’s budget….the projections from a rosey scenario you will see the following……

    10 year shortfall for SOCIAL SECURITY IS……. 1.552 trillion dollars….thats how short we are going to be in just paying SSI in the next 10 years…..of course we dont need to fix that…..of course we dont.

    10 year shortfall in Medicare IS………… 4.253 trillion

    No problems huh. Of course its all the GOP throwing around scare tactics to get reelected. Of course we really have no problems that simply taxing the rich will fix.

    I report you decide. These are the presidents OWN NUMBERS…not mine…not pulled from some think tank.

    President Barak Obama’s own numbers…published on the Whitehouse.gov website.

    Our economic fix is much like a cancer patient…..I had prostrate surgery to remove my prostrate because of cancer. They found it early. Its fixed…its gone……no cancer….I suffer from some side effects that Id rather not have but the MAIN problem is resolved.

    or

    I could have waited until it because a mess….spread all over my body and when it finally had to be addressed it was a real nightmare….a real major, costly and time consuming effort that affected not only me but my family, friends, work and everyone around me.

    Thats where we stand today….fix it today or just keep passing it on…much like Harry Reid is doing in the senate.

    And dont give me the Bullshit that the GOP house passes crummy bills…..the way the house and senate work and have worked is that the house passes bills……the senate changes them……sends them back to the house and they compromise.

    None of that is being done…..The democratic senate is doing NOTHING….not even willing to have a debate because they know the minute they debate ANYTHING that is fiscal they get hammered at the polls like they did in 2010.

    Throw the Democrats out…..come on you old fashioned classical liberals that used to run the democrat party…..team up with the right like you did with Reagan and lets get the country back on track….

    before its too late.

    Please.

  14. Angela Says:

    End MY Pain….

    My local pharmacy (part of a chain) jacks up prices on prescriptions when the pills are covered by medicare. Hmmm. I wonder if the CEO and top execs at this pharmacy chain are republican?

    I’m so disillusioned.

  15. Tillyosu Says:

    Because even if he doesn’t do as well as Romney at the debates…it doesn’t matter.

    I wonder if Justin would like to take back that delicious little piece of political wisdom right about now…

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