A Brokered GOP Convention?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, RepublicansRepublicans are becoming increasingly worried that the primary season won’t pick a clear winner.
The wide-open Republican presidential field has party officials and strategists excited about the prospect of the rarest of political spectacles: a contested presidential nominating convention.“As late as it is in this election cycle, no candidate in our party has moved enough to be assured of the nomination, and the models I look at suggest a serious possibility we could have a brokered convention,” said Republican National Committee Treasurer Timothy J. Morgan.
This year, none of the Republican candidates has won the hearts and minds of a significant chunk of likely Republican voters, even though less than a month remains before the first contests. And this time around, some of the big states follow earlier than ever, which could prevent a candidate from gathering the kind of momentum that has overwhelmed opponents in past years.
Personally, I think this could help the GOP. Finally, some genuine drama and excitement.
John Zogby agrees…
“Ironically, because Republicans have a chance of winning in 2008, a brokered Republican nominating convention could actually put a premium on having party leaders select someone who can win in November,” Mr. Zogby said.
However, Zogby says that he thinks it may be somebody not in the current field? Does he mean Ron Paul?
This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 18th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:50 am
A brokered convention would be like a beautiful dream for political junkies. Especially if the split is between five significant candidates, so there is no clear front-runner. Keep in mind, though, that most of the Republican primaries are set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of the winner-take-all theme, to prevent that from happening. For instance, if today’s polls in New Hampshire were the actual election results, Romney would get more than half of New Hampshire’s delegates by earning less than a third of the votes in the primary. Similar rules apply in the big states, which plays to Romney and Giuliani’s advantage (if Giuliani can last long enough to get to the big states). So even if the primaries don’t yield an obvious winner, it could wind up resolving with Huckabee choosing whether he’s rather be Romney’s or Giuliani’s running mate — and that sort of decision would get made before the convention.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Clearly Mr. Zogby realizes that even though his outdated polls don’t show it, Dr. Paul is THE force to be reckoned with for the nomination. God Bless America
December 18th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Yes, I think that it will be Ron Paul. He’s the best chance for the Republicans this time by far. His support is broad and enthusiastic and his anti-war stance is what is needed to run against the Democrats. Its time for a change and Ron Paul will help this country get back on its feet.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Agreed that a brokered GOP convention would be a beautiful dream for political junkies. But I doubt it will happen; the rules were crafted to make that sort of result very unlikely. Recall that conventions are decided by delegate votes, and that GOP primaries are generally set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of winner-take-all. This strongly favors plurality winners. For instance, if the current polling numbers in NH became the election results, Romney would get 7 of the 12 delegates at stake, with less than a third of the vote.
It’s possible that the primary process would result in no candidate getting a clear majority of delegates committed to him. But the likeliest result would be Giuliani (assuming he can make it far enough to the later-scheduled primary states where he has an advantage) and Romney (assuming he can survive Huckabee poaching the early states from him) splitting the bulk of the delegates. That might put someone like Huckabee or McCain in the position of having enough delegates to throw the convention one way or the other in exchange for the Vice-Presidential nomination, but that would be the sort of deal that would be made before the convention.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Sorry for the similar submits; my first one did not appear quickly.