Poll: Hillary Leads By 13 In PA, But…
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Pennsylvania, PollsA quick glance at these new numbers (Clinton/Obama – 54/41) by American Research Group, you’d think this is pretty bad news for Obama. But ARG was the one with that shock poll last week that had Hillary leading by 20 (57/37)…only a week after they showed the two tied (45/45).
But instead of looking at the lead, let’s look at the trend from 20 to 13. That’s a significant tightening of 7 points, and that’s good news for Obama. However, ARG’s undecideds are also very low at 4%, so this could suggest that they’re breaking overwhelming for Hillary.
I guess we’ll see Tuesday.
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April 20th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Lets get real here Justin. After a 4-1 media saturation overspend by Obama, after pulling out all the stops with endorsements, there are just no undecideds left to fall into the Obama Camp. After all that, what has come out of the Obama Camp in the last week to convince these voters? The debate performance? The Jay-Z brushoff? Every time Dem voters have had an opportunity to end the process with a vote for Obama (like OH, TX, NH) they have chosen to continue it with a vote for Clinton. I don’t expect anything different out of PA then we saw in neighboring OH. The undecideds don’t have confidence that they know Obama well enough to make him President, and they break for Clinton. I’m calling this an 8-10% win for Clinton.
April 20th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
And as I’ve asked before, care to put any money on the final outcome?
By the way, I think Clinton will win by 8%, but won’t make it to double digits. And when you aggregate all the polls together, that’s sort of the picture you’re getting…as I’ve stated in this post and many others.
April 20th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
MW may have a point, but realistically, if undecideds knew Hillary well enough they would never even think of casting a vote for her. Only the most uninformed of voters could miss her Bush-like character flaws. Only the most foolish would see them and still support her.
She would have to blow Obama out in PA just to survive the next round of Dems calling for her to exit the race. She cannot win the nomination. Obama cannot possibly lose enough for her to have a chance.
It’s over.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:56 am
Wrong captain. Only the most starry eyed Obama acolytes can fail to see the problems with his candidacy. AFter outspending 4-1 in Oho, he loses. After oust-spending 4-1 in Texas, he loses. After out-spending 4-1 in Pa he loses. Contrary to your statement, everyone knows the Clintons warts and all. And in all the big states, a majority still prefer Clinton to Obama. After IN, a few more smaller primaries and a big finish in Puerto Rico, more Democrats will have voted for Clinton than Obama over the entire primary season process. That’ll be enough for the supes to switch to Clinton and push Obama into the VP role.
JG – I have set and agreed terms in several other threads with no response.