Comments on: To GOP, Obama Has Won

By: Erik Sickinger

Erik Sickinger — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:11:44 +0000

Obama may or may not close in Indiana. But consider this: the Dems care more about winning more seats in the house/senate than they do about who is president. An unpopular president will benefit them nothing but four years of “its all your fault” from the dittoheads.
Its not just the presidential campaign, its the entire ticket down to the local level. And Obama has/can/will energize voters on a local level in a way that Hillary hasn’t proven herself capable.

Also: Hillary will NOT win the popular vote. Sure, if you include florida (which doesn’t count) and Michigan (where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot) than she may… But thats like, oh I dont know, but it certainly is not a convincing argument.
The “big states” argument is rediculous. And has NO merit. Can you really see any dem of worth losing CA, NY, NJ to any GOP candidate? Answering that question honestly is pretty important.

And if those two arguments are your metric, good luck.

Clinton’s “inevitibility” argument was based on that she appeared to be the only strong DEM candidate. She didn’t EARN that title, she assumed it by having high name recognition, relatively popular with the left, and being around the block.

Has Obama lost momentum? Certainly. But to project that onto the GE wouldn’t be exactly prescient thinking.

By: Dos

Dos — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:56:37 +0000

I couldn’t agree more w/MW. The smart Dems know that particularly if Hillary wins Indiana and comes close in NC — they will inevitably lose the general with an Obama ticket. The problem now is…the Dems do not have the brass set to take it away from Obama and give it someone with a chance against McCain.

And I don’t blame them, there will be a monsterous schism in the Dem party between blue-collars and the yuppie bourgeois coffee-house sissies…they’ll be setting their Volvo’s and hybrids on fire in the street — the software industry will come to a grinding halt — organic healthfood stores will be looted — they’ll throw huge chunks of gourmet bree at blue collar workers on their way to work — they’ll will have sit ins and I guarantee: Larry Lessig will release a 10 volume flury of indignant high-minded vidoes.

It is going to be hell: Imagine the Google building in some post-apocalyptic Mad Max scene with a dissident programmer yelling out the window…”Yes, we can! You want your IP, come and get your fuck’in IP Hillary!”

MW – you want to make a movie…

By: mw

mw — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:08:19 +0000

To Justin. No he has not.

If he wins in Indiana, I’ll agree, its over. The supes will move en masse to close it out.

But if he fails to close the deal again in Indiana, and Clinton makes it close in NC, then, not only has Obama not won, but you have to say that Clinton is winning. Not in pledged delegates, but in every other important metric. She will win the popular, she will win all the big states (except Ill), she will and she finish will have all the momentum at the end. You can then add another adjective besides “fighter” – add “winner” and “nominee”.

On the other hand (and I don’t think it will happen), if Obama manges to loses NC, he needs to cut a deal for the VP and get out while he still has some shred of credibility left with the Supes.

But keep promoting that “inevitability” meme, Justin. It will work as well for Obama as it did for Clinton.