GOP Armageddon 2008?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Congress, Democrats, RepublicansWorries are mounting that the Republicans could lose up to 20 seats come fall.
The Republican defeat in Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi, in a deeply conservative district where, in an average year, Democrats cannot even compete, was a clear sign that the GOP has the political equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily lose up to 20 seats this fall.Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House — [...]
Things are not particularly more hopeful on the Senate side, where most analysts say Democrats have a strong chance of adding five or more seats to their current majority.
From a purely strategic standpoint, I think this is quite a bit of posturing. Because if they can sell the meme now that the fall is going to be cataclysmic for the GOP, they can claim victory if they only lose 10 seats. This is how this game is played, so for those of us who care about such things I’d pay close attention to how much they say they’re going to lose, and yet still stay close to Bush’s policies.
Finally, this bit…
“It is not beyond the realm of possibility that we could be down to 170 seats. It’s like back to where we were in the ’80s,†said an aide to a top GOP lawmaker. “The only solace we’ll have is maybe we can run against [Barack] Obama in 2010.â€
As the saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true.” Running against a President Obama might put them even deeper in the hole in 2010 if he can get some key bi-partisan legislation pushed through in his first year.
This entry was posted on Thursday, May 15th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Congress, Democrats, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
“From a purely strategic standpoint, I think this is quite a bit of posturing. Because if they can sell the meme now that the fall is going to be cataclysmic for the GOP, they can claim victory if they only lose 10 seats. This is how this game is played, so for those of us who care about such things I’d pay close attention to how much they say they’re going to lose, and yet still stay close to Bush’s policies.”
That is some flawed thinking. Once the actual election is over, you gain nothing by claiming a victory from defeat. Doing so only makes sense in cases where the election hasn’t happened yet and you’re trying to build momentum (e.g. the primaries) so you can win the election. I’d say this is more akin to an honest “yeah, we’re getting creamed” than about any sort of strategy.