Independents Split Evenly Between The Candidates
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Independents, McCainSo goes the swing vote, so goes the election. At least that’s what these numbers from Gallup suggest…
So who are these swing voters?
Major subgroups of the U.S. population giving neither candidate a large or consistent edge include 30- to 49-year-olds, 50- to 64-year-olds, college grads, those with some college education, those with no college education, political independents, and Catholics.
Many in the moderate/centrist/independent blogosphere have suspected this for quite some time, and with only 90 or so days until the election, it looks like this contest will be won or lost somewhere in the muddy middle.
So if you thought you had seen a lot of flip flopping before…just wait. It’s about to become an art form.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Independents, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 7th, 2008 at 6:59 am
Umm, if centrists remain evenly split, then the election is more likely to be determined by true believer turnout.
A substantial fraction of centrists would have to swing one way or the other to be a deciding factor. Further, it’s always possible that if a given candidate is generating the sort of enthusiasm that amps up one side’s turnout, then more swing voters might reject that candidate (as too liberal or too conservative) and swing the other way.
That’s the question for now. The swingers don’t appear to have swung yet, and they may not. If they split….