It has surface plausibility, AND it suggests that Obama must have some unstated yet serious flaw that is holding him back from having the bigger lead he should have because of various circumstances. THEN, it allows GOP folks to fill in the blanks…which is that Obama is an exotic abnormal creature that we don’t really understand and probably ought to fear…that it would be very risky in these uncertain times to choose him as our next President. That’s the only mental perspective available to the GOP that stands any chance of making John McCain look appealing. From this persepctive, McCain looks wise and safe and trustworthy, instead of old and lacking in vigor and unwilling to try new appraoches.

Folks are loathe to give too much credence to what electoral demographics continue to suggest, which is that the American division of political/philosphical opinion creates a national baseline that meanders around a 50% split plus or minus 2 or 3 points. And it also strongly suggests that the blue/red divide is a main source of this stable baseline. Because electorally speaking, we know how most of the states will choose, most of the time. We know it can change, but there’s precious little reason today to think it’s going to do so any time soon.