SHOCK: Obama Up By 8 In West Virginia?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, McCain, West Virginia

Obama: 50%
McCain: 42%

Is this an outlier? Perhaps. But even if it is, the race is probably a lot closer to being tied than most think.

The key here is Independents are breaking for Obama 50% to 38%. And I think, once again, that this shows the Palin pick doesn’t necessarily speak to “small town Americans.”

Nate Silver has some analysis…

Nevertheless, if Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania — and all of the polls seem to think that he does — that means he’s had to have made at least some progress in the “Pennsyltucky” region in the interior of the state.

And if he’s made progress in Pennsyltucky, that probably means he’s made progress in West Virginia. West Virginia — like Pennsylvania — is also a place where the Democrats retain a substantial edge in party identification, and perhaps the economy has really brought Democrats home.

Indeed, for the past week or so, just about every poll taken in a Kerry state has shown Obama with a double-digit lead, with the minor exception of Minnesota, where the polling has been erratic.

Maybe there’s more room for electoral gains than I had thought…


This entry was posted on Thursday, October 9th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, McCain, West Virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “SHOCK: Obama Up By 8 In West Virginia?”

  1. bubbles Says:

    Yeah I doubt that Obama is really so far ahead in West Virginia. But I’m guessing that this means that McCain certainly isn’t running away with the state now.

  2. Ed in NJ Says:

    It’s just another state that McCain is forced to defend, meaning less resources for the real tipping point states.

    McCain is playing a fatal game of Whack-a-Mole with time running out.

  3. Kate Says:

    That is absolutely stunning. Here in NC Obama is running about 52 to 48 percent, within the margin of error. I wonder if Barr is in the polling in West Virginia? He’s not in the polls here although he is on the ballot.

  4. Donklephant » Blog Archive » A New Electoral Reality: Obama 380, McCain 158 Says:

    [...] West Virginia now being thrown into the toss-up column on Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight, this is what it would look like if Obama won all the swing [...]

  5. Gawk Squawk Says:

    I noticed this poll result yesterday and called Senator Obama’s West Virginia campaign director, Tom Vogel, for comment. You can see the details of our conversation at:

    http://gawksquawk.newsvine.com/_news/2008/10/09/1977413-obama-surge-in-west-virginia-the-campaigns-take

    Officials from Senator McCain’s West Virginia campaign have not returned my calls.

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