Insider Advantage: Obama Up By 1 In Georgia

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Georgia, McCain, Polls

Obama: 48%
McCain: 47%
Other: 2%
Undec’d: 3%

Alright folks, because of massive turnout by African Americans in early voting, I think Georgia may actually be in the mix this year.

Let’s remember that Obama “routed” (per Alan’s hilarious scale) Hillary in the primary season by 35 points, so he’s certainly a popular figure in the state.

Here’s more…

“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.

“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.

“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”

Still, as we’re all very aware of by now, Obama doesn’t need to win Georgia. This state would just be electoral gravy for him. But McCain absolutely, 100% needs to win it, and the fact that he may have to pour increasingly dwindling resources into the state just to keep his numbers from slipping shows you how dire his situation is.

More as it develops…

This entry was posted on Friday, October 24th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Georgia, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “Insider Advantage: Obama Up By 1 In Georgia”

  1. kranky kritter Says:

    On Alan’s scale, it’s pretty hard for a Presidential election outcome to reach “rout” territory if he’s talking about percent disparity in popular vote. It would be shocking to see anyone get 55 or 60% of the popular vote, for example.

    But electorally speaking, make no mistake. If Obama wins Georgia, it’ll be a rout. Then we’d certainly be talking about Obama getting in the neighborhood of 400 EV, which is demonstrably an ass-kicking.

    At this point, I’m inclined to view this as an outlier. Late tightening makes more sense based on the trends I’ve seen. I still expect Obama to win with a 320-350 EV count.

    But it’s also possible that it trends to a late landslide because people like to back a winner, be on the side of history, etc.

  2. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Quote Of The Day Says:

    [...] more, at least one recent poll has shown Obama up by [...]

  3. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Georgia: McCain Leads By 6 Says:

    [...] And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated. In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage. [...]

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