Trouble’s a brewing! Sarah Palin has stolen John McCain’s thunder and Cindy McCain’s oxycontin prescription. And nobody is too happy about it, leading to delicious Republican cannibalism reported by Ben Smith:
Four Republicans close t…

Notice how often the VP nom is chosen for ticket balancing reasons and as a result has only parochial appeal. Further notice how often the choice is a solid but unspectacular person with maturity and experience, someone who is generally well-regarded but has always lacked personality, star power, etc. Palin is neither of these beasts.

The question is whether or not Palin comes in for the stink of failure or not if and when McCain loses. Traditionally, the stank affixes to the ticket topper. Palin is a GOP base darling, and that endures despite left-wing contempt. I do agree that Huckabee and Palin would potentially split the base. I also think Huckabee is much more polished and appealing candidate.

The list Clint cites is noticeable for several flaws. It’s only 8 people long, which is a small sample. Further, several of these folks either lacked later aspirations or had circumstances close their window of opportunity. I serious doubt that the VP slot had anything to do with it. They’re mostly just folks who lacked braiod ticket-topping appeal. Here’s the thing. We all know right now for a fact that Palin has VERY strong appeal among the GOP base, garnering in in-party enthusiasm vastly greater than any of the folks on Clint’s list. The only reasonable guess to make is that right now she qualifies for the short list for 2012. She’ll have 3 years to show she either does or does not belong on it.

Waiting longer might not be a bad idea, sure. But OTOH the vast experience of political consultants always counsels that potential candidates should never underestimate how quickly one’s window of opportunity can close.

A slight addendum to your list.

Dan Quayle did run for President in 2000 until he discovered he had no chance.

Same thing for Joe Lieberman in 2004, and John Edwards in 2008.

Those three former VP nominees (and in one case a former VP) didn’t even manage to get their parties’ nomination.

…and that’s just what I can remember off the top of my head (and a few quick trips to wikipedia)

Suppose over the next 3 years Sara Palin makes occasional breaks intot he national press with tough but sensible comments about national policy and decent ideas she has implemented in Alaska. Suppose further that with 3 more years of practice she comes across as more poised and polished, and able to string together good solid answers to questions she fumbled due to nervousness. Suppose she stops blurting out GOP boilerplate catch phrases because she now is able to keep her cool and is therefore able to express herself clearly. She has shown this ability in many instances.

I mean c’mon. Barack Obama is far more poised in unscripted forums than he was 6 months ago. People can learn and grow. We know this to be true.