Gallup: Obama Up 7, 7, 2
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, PollsObama drops a big net 3 points today in all the models, but still maintains a sizeable lead in two of them.
However, with the margin narrowing in Rasmussen’s poll too, we could be seeing a last minute tightening after McCain’s attacks on spreading the wealth.
Registered Voters: Obama +7
Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +7
Likely Voters (Traditional Model): Obama +2
Gallup talks trends…
The two percentage point margin for Obama over McCain in today’s traditional likely voters result, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 25-27, is not the first time the race has been this close; it matches the two-point Obama margin that held for three straight reporting periods spanning Oct. 13 -17, a week and a half ago. The traditional model assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections, in which both current interest in the election and past voting behavior are predictors of actual voting.Obama’s seven-point lead among expanded likely voters, based on a model which makes no assumptions about turnout based on past voting history, is fairly typical of what has been measured over the last two weeks, although slightly narrowed from the last two days’ reports. Obama’s lowest margin among this expanded group was four points, measured on Oct. 15-17.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 28th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
It occurs to me, that if the polls continue to tighten another 3 points between now and the election (NOTE:I am not saying I think they will), then…
Gallup will be in a position where they will have one poll projecting an Obama win, and another poll projecting a McCain win. So after all these polls, all these months, it nets out to Gallup saying – “either Obama or McCain is leading.”
I think I already knew that.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:09 am
I don’t understand. In the first graph (Poll of Registered Voters) Obama’s at 52 and McCain is at 42. How is that equal Obama at +7? I thought is was because they’d taken the margin of error into account, but then why didn’t they for the other polls? It’s strange.