Palin Could Still Have Bright Future
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in Palin
Today, the New York Times takes a look at Sarah Palin’s future position within the Republican Party, whether John McCain wins or loses.
I think a quote by former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd captures the challenge Palin will face:
She’s an attractive woman who can give a great speech, but the American public doesn’t view her much beyond that … She’s vastly unpopular among moderate and independent voters, and while she could be in a position to be popular among an increasingly smaller Republican Party, she’s got to figure out a way to extend that and figure out a way to strengthen her weaknesses.
Palin has a lot of work to do if she wants to be a major player, either as Vice President or as a national political figure. But I don’t think her prospects are too dire. She has exceptional charisma and a solid personal narrative – and that stuff is often harder to come by than experience and substance. The charisma is the hard part of politics. The rest can be learned.
Palin is young. She has plenty of time to add substance to her political character. And plenty of time to develop some guiding principles that are more cohesive than her current inconsistent mix of social conservativism and semi-reformer instincts. She has a good chance of doing just fine so long as her various “scandals†don’t turn into anything serious.
Palin hit the stage a little too early in her career, but America is a forgiving place that loves a strong second act. I wouldn’t count Palin out, no matter how this election ends.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 and is filed under Palin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:58 am
I agree as long as the Evanglical base of the party holds sway – and I don’t think they will. If the Republican party is forced into a make-over – long needed – they will likely move toward fiscal responsibility, meritocracy, and libertarian leanings. I don’t think there will much room for “dinosaur and people roamed the earth at the same time cuz the Bahble says so” types. But I could be wrong.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I agree with Mike that the Republican party *seems* ready to fracture – especially if Obama wins, and wins big (I’m skeptical that it will be a landslide).
I wonder, though, whether the party will split if Obama becomes President, or come together in solidarity against him. It’s hard to say.
I’d think the fiscal conservatives out there have GOT to be sick of the religious right’s hijacking of their party by now.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
I’d say they should be more sick of the neocons with two wars and a huge budget deficit. Socons get more heat because of the rhetoric but it’s been the neocons who actually got more of their policies in place.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
As a disaffected member of the evangelical crowd, I think it’s safe to say that the rift between the social conservatives and the fiscal conservative is growing, and will likely become a very big deal over the next four years. I’ve been hearing a lot of pulpit-borne claims that the current economic woes are a judgment from on high. Much like every other major negative event ever. Quite a few of these “pastoral” pronouncements have pinned the blame on Republicans for abandoning the evangelicals. Among the social conservatives, Palin will continue to be popular, largely because she’s “one of them” and shares their extreme biases. Not much else matters to them. Among the fiscal conservatives, they will rightly begin to see social conservatives as poison in the well, and begin to distance themselves. Unfortunately, even slight movement in this direction will doom both to the benefit of the Democrats, and I don’t think that’s actually good for the country.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
As a moderate I’ve been lamenting the ascendance of the socons/theocons for years. I’m not wild about the proposed fracture in the Right for the very reason Bob mentions, but I suppose I’m banking on a coup by moneycons to make the GOP palatable enough to moderates that we could restore equilibrium. Not that that’s anything but naked self-interest on my part and a bid to completely marginalize socons, the only sub-group of the electorate with which I find myself in true contention.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
For those of us looking for the quickest route the Republican make-over should hope the Dems don’t over-reach in the next two years. A Dem screw up will give Palin-esque socons and neocons the excuse they need to keep a foot in the Republican door. A good showing by a Dem super-majority, and the far-right will wither, and fiscal conservatives will take over. Then in year 3-4 the Dems will almost certainly over-reach and Blue-dog and Reagan Dems will split off to take over the Republican party. Palin is nowhere in this picture. So, I’m already planning my affiliation switch in 2010. Oh, please, oh, please…