Why Obama is going to win in a landslide
By Nick Ragone | Related entries in News
Post mortems are usually done after an event, but in this case I’m going to do it before the final tally on Tuesday. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I doubt it.
I think Barack Obama’s victory will be similar in size to George H.W. Bush’s in 1988 — 7 percentage points in the popular vote, and close to 380 delegates in the Electoral College. He’ll probably get the largest percentage of the popular vote of any Democrat since LBJ.
George W. Bush proved in 2000 that the margin of victory doesn’t necessarily dictate how one will govern, however; after all, he lost by 500,000 votes, but strutted as though he had a mandate.
But in this case, size does matter. We could point to a bunch of reasons why Obama is going to win huge: he ran an infinitely better campaign than McCain; Palin turned out to be a dreadful veep choice; he outspent McCain four to one, and so on. The list is seemingly endless.
But let’s be honest: Obama’s lopsided victory will stand as a clear repudiation of George W. Bush’s ruinous presidency, plain and simple. In eight years, Bush has driven the Republican Party to the edge of extinction, something that even Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon struggled to do.
To think that a thin-resume liberal could win in a landslide in a post 9-11 world is mind-numbing, bordering on incomprehensible. Following the mid-term elections just six years ago, all the talk was about the Republicans consolidating their power for a generation, and it was the Democrats who seemed to be on the verge of becoming a permanent minority. The phrase that was used most often to describe the political landscape was the “re-alignment of the parties.”
Flash forward six years, and the situation has been completely reversed. That’s not John McCain’s fault; that’s not the fault of the Republicans in Congress; it’s not even because the electorate has undergone any fundamental change. It all rests with George W. Bush, and his decision to invade Iraq.
In my book, I called the invasion the worst decision in presidential history, the ramifications of which in lost blood, treasure, and moral standing around the globe would be felt for a generation, if not longer. But that’s not its only legacy. In one fell swoop, George W. Bush has done something that Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton – the last three Democratic presidents – couldn’t: completely re-align the electoral map.
If you simply take the invasion of Iraq out of the equation — let’s pretend Colin Powell and diplomacy won out — we’d probably still be looking at an evenly split country, give or take. Congress would likely be at parity, and this election would be a nail biter, irrespective of the candidates.
Of course, we can’t separate George Bush from Iraq anymore than we can separate Barack Obama from hope, mostly because it was a decision born of his arrogance, insularity, and a self righteousness that lives within people who see a higher moral purpose in their actions. He was a gut guy, a hunch guy, a guy who followed his instincts — facts and intelligence notwithstanding. He deplored intellectual curiosity, had no use for dissenters, and confused introspection and reflection for weakness.
Put another way, George W. Bush had all necessary personality flaws that are prerequisite for such a devastating blunder, and while the country has suffered for it, it’s the Republicans who are now paying for it. And will continue to pay for a long time to come.
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November 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 pm
No separating bush from his party,
“that’s not the fault of the Republicans in Congress; it’s not even because the electorate has undergone any fundamental change. It all rests with George W. Bush, and his decision to invade Iraq.”
You cant separate bush from the congressional republicans. The gop controlled everything for most of bush’s presidency and then they worked extra hard to oppose the dems after they took control of congress. they share the same ideology as much as they want to deny it. none of them were coming out against the presidents policies regarding deregulation or his destruction of federal agencies or his ridiculous assertion that the president is above any judicial review. none of them have been working to fix the health care system in the country. the president does not pass laws, congress does. if they wanted to exert oversight and stop bush they could have done a great deal more.
Conservatives are going to try and deny that bush was a real conservative, they are going to try and scapegoat him when in reality he was exactly what they wanted. with one party rule you know exactly who to hold responsible for failure and that encompasses the gop in congress, not just bush. Bush was awful but he had a lot of help and very little resistance.
On the issue of iraq, i agree that it is a big issue but in the current climate the driving force is clearly the economic crisis. iraq has pretty much been resolved in the minds of most.
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
It won’t be a landslide if you don’t vote. If I have to wait all day in line to vote, I will.
November 2nd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Sarah Palin Has Proven To Be The Worst Vice Presidential Pick In American History…
CNN confirms the obvious:
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicates that McCain’s running mate is growing less popular among voters and may be costing the Republican presidential nominee a few crucial percentage points i…
November 2nd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
[...] bad is it? ” In eight years, Bush has driven the Republican Party to the edge of extinction, something that even …” Karl Rove’s Grand Realignment proceeds at full speed, only in [...]
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:28 am
I’m with Gaucho. My distaste for the recent incarnation of the GOP has as much to do with Tom Delay, Bill Frist, Jack Abramoff and Saipan. I suppose it began with the obviously partisan and useless impeachment proceedings that left the Contract With America in tatters (at least for me). Country first, eh, Newt?