What Obama’s Approval Numbers Tell Us About Where We’re Headed
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, History, PollsYes, Obama’s approval numbers are extremely high right now…
So what’s the big deal? These numbers will come down as his presidency moves forward, right?
Well, sure, but when looked at in historical context they provide an interesting glimpse into what he can get done in the near term. Especially when compared to Reagan in 1980.
Reagan won considerably more electoral votes in 1980 than Obama did in 2008. As measured in percentage terms, his margin of victory over Jimmy Carter was larger than that of Obama over John McCain. On the other hand, Obama won a lot more popular votes than Reagan did. He also won a higher percentage of the popular vote, and his margin of victory was larger than Reagan’s in absolute (rather than percentage) terms.
The Republicans made greater gains in both the Senate and the House in 1980 than the Democrats did in 2008. On the other hand, the Republicans were starting from a much lower baseline, and if one considers the previous midterm to be part of the same political cycle, the Democrats gained more seats in each chamber over 2006/08 than the Republicans did over 1978/80. The bottom line, perhaps, is that Obama’s party controls considerably more seats in both chambers of Congress than Reagan’s did in 1980 — indeed, Republicans were still a considerable minority in the House in 1980.
And now we have these Gallup approval ratings showing Obama regarded quite a bit more favorably than Reagan was at the start of his term. So in comparison to Reagan, Obama comes out looking pretty good.
Basically, If Reagan had the will to reshape the direction of the country after his win against Carter, one has to believe that there’s similar support behind Obama this year.
However, I don’t think Republicans and Libertarians really understand this yet. Because they continue to argue that this is a center-right country.
Well, apparently they haven’t been looking at the party ID numbers recently…
With Democrats and Independents sharing an equal 36%/36% of the electorate right now, it’s pretty obvious that we’re a center left nation. And given that Indy approval is usually the average, that means that they’re most likely approving of Obama’s plans by at least 60% and probably closer to the 68% Gallup shows.
Obviously this doesn’t mean that Obama should treat this like a “I’m going to do this whether you like it or not” mandate, especially if he wants to achieve some of his “post-partisan” goals, but Republicans should be extremely careful about being more than the party of “no” because it seems like the political will is definitely on Obama’s side.
This entry was posted on Monday, January 26th, 2009 and is filed under Barack, History, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
January 26th, 2009 at 7:23 am
Republicans should be extremely careful about being more than the party of “no†because it seems like the political will is definitely on Obama’s side.
I was just thinking the same thing last week. This looks like a pick-your-poison scenario for the GOP: give Obama the same “medicine” the Dems used to give Bush, and put off moderate voters who backed Obama (and even some who didn’t) last November; or work with him and put off the base.
January 26th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Actually, it’s possible to look at the party identification numbers and still believe that this is basically a center-right country. One just has to open one’s eyes to the fact that, after the last 8 years, the Republican Party is no longer the party of the right (or center-right either).
January 28th, 2009 at 9:31 am
As long as there is a Christian belief system, the country will continue a center right direction. Numbers can be manipulated and become skewed. Expert or not. Independant or Moderate. Opinions are never as unbiased as a person wants you to believe. Deep inside, there is always a lean. The question of which way is souly the discretion of the expert providing the intel…in other words, O’ has not been in office long enough to use a temp guage yet. But the direction we are going is poor and will bring the country to its knees. Reagan Pointed a gazillion missles at Russia his first day in office, and asked the premier “still think I am bluffing?” O’ signs and executive order making the US a supporter of murder around the world supporting abortion, and gives the bad guys a green light to conduct business as usual.
February 2nd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Obama had higher ‘popular vote’ numbers because there are more registered voters.
Which makes Reagan’s percentage more impressive than Obama’s.
What, bloggers can’t do simple math?
Idiots.